MBUU MBUU
$21.96 · −0.27% vs $22.02 close · scored 15:43 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 57/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 57/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−53.5 composite┆ −54.0 yesterday (+0.6) +12.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
57 / 100 · top 45% today
362 contracts · quality 65 · stability 0.78
hasn’t paid +0.27% · n=20,898
What traded today · weight 62%
−39.4 pts
66 calls · 18.2% 296 puts
bias −63.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−14.1 pts
1,299 call OI · 31.5% 2,824 put OI
bias −37.0 × 0.38
Equals
−53.5
74% of the score comes from today’s volume, 26% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −21.02% · tape −0.9 · corr 0.01
● peak +37 ◆ −93.2 in a day ▼ low −76.9 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $29 $22 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 21.02% while the tape has barely moved (−0.9). They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 57 (55th pct) · quality 65 · 362 contracts
note Jumpy 0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.27% avg, n=20,898
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MBUU’s tape by 2 days (r=0.30, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on MBUU is poor 31% hit rate on 387 closed calls · payoff 0.93×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $21.96 highlighted. The $17.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,091). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on MBUU Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$21.96 → $21.96
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$22.02 → $21.96
−0.27% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$22.02 → $21.96
−0.27% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$22.02 → $21.96
−0.27% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 188 of these 387 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report 27 Aug BMO
P/E 38.48 · fwd 11.05 Beta 1.212
52w $23.84–$35.06 IV rank —
Ask about MBUU answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −77 to −53 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −66.3 on 2 Oct, then rose to −51.8 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $22.83 to $23.01. It’s at −53.5 now.−39.4 from volume and −14.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with PTON Why is our MBUU record what it is? What’s the $17.5 wall?
What our data projects
+0.30 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#132 of 724 · helped by tape composite, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $17.5 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
MBUU · Leisure Products
Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−53.5 ┆ −54.0 yday evidence
hasn’t paid +0.27% · n=20,898
Why it’s −53
−39.4 volume · 18% calls−14.1 OI · 32% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −93.2 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $29 $22 Price −21.02%, tape −0.9 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 57 (55th pct) · quality 65 · 362 contracts
note Jumpy 0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.27% avg, n=20,898
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MBUU’s tape by 2 days (r=0.30, n=43)
What traded today · 62%
−39.4 pts
66 calls · 296 puts · bias −63.5
What’s on the books · 38%
−14.1 pts
1,299 call OI · 2,824 put OI · bias −37.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −21.02% · tape −0.9 · corr 0.01
● peak +37 ◆ −93.2 in a day ▼ low −76.9 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $29 $22 Over 30 days, price has fallen 21.02% while the tape has barely moved (−0.9). They agree.
31% hit rate · 387 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$21.96 → $21.96
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$22.02 → $21.96
−0.27% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$22.02 → $21.96
−0.27% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$22.02 → $21.96
−0.27% hit
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $17.5 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MBUU
Why did the score rise from −77 to −53 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −66.3 on 2 Oct, then rose to −51.8 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $22.83 to $23.01. It’s at −53.5 now.−39.4 from volume and −14.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with PTON Why is our MBUU record what it is? What’s the $17.5 wall?