PTON Peloton Interactive Inc
$4.92 · +0.00% vs $4.92 close · scored 07:34 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 68/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 68/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+73.3 composite+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
68 / 100 · top 7% today
6,467 contracts · quality 80 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.23% · n=7,893
What traded today · weight 62%
+47.3 pts
5,701 calls · 88.2% 766 puts
bias +76.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+26.0 pts
151,773 call OI · 84.3% 28,368 put OI
bias +68.5 × 0.38
Equals
+73.3
65% of the score comes from today’s volume, 35% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.21% · tape +43.3 · corr -0.02
◆ −36.9 in a day ▼ low +19.7 ● peak +81 09-06 09-12 09-19 09-25 10-01 10-07 10-16 $5 $5 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.21% while the tape has firmed 43.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 68 (93th pct) · quality 80 · 6,467 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.23% avg, n=7,893
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led PTON’s tape by 2 days (r=0.35, n=35)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on PTON is poor 26% hit rate on 221 closed calls · payoff 1.37×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $4.92. The $6 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 95,298). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on PTON Proof 2 Oct · 4h
$4.92 → $4.92
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$4.97 → $4.97
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$5.02 → $5.02
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$4.91 → $4.91
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 126 of these 221 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 34.17 · fwd 15.26 Beta 2.636
52w $3.65–$9.20 IV rank —
Ask about PTON answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +73.3?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +73.3 across the last 8 sessions.+47.3 from volume and +26.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 36 pts stock_scores · 07:34 method · 62/38
Compare with MCFT Why is our PTON record what it is? What’s the $6 wall?
What our data projects
+0.25 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#101 of 1513 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How 1 of 1 checked projections for PTON got the side of the market right; when it ranked in the top fifth it then did +2.05 pts vs the market on average.
Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $6 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Peloton Interactive Inc · Leisure Products
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+73.3 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.23% · n=7,893
Why it’s +73
+47.3 volume · 88% calls+26.0 OI · 84% calls
36 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −36.9 09-06 09-12 09-19 09-25 10-01 10-07 10-16 $5 $5 Price −1.21%, tape +43.3 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 68 (93th pct) · quality 80 · 6,467 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.23% avg, n=7,893
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led PTON’s tape by 2 days (r=0.35, n=35)
What traded today · 62%
+47.3 pts
5,701 calls · 766 puts · bias +76.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+26.0 pts
151,773 call OI · 28,368 put OI · bias +68.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.21% · tape +43.3 · corr -0.02
◆ −36.9 in a day ▼ low +19.7 ● peak +81 09-06 09-12 09-19 09-25 10-01 10-07 10-16 $5 $5 Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.21% while the tape has firmed 43.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
26% hit rate · 221 closed
2 Oct · 4h
$4.92 → $4.92
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$4.97 → $4.97
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$5.02 → $5.02
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$4.91 → $4.91
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $6 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about PTON
What is behind today’s +73.3?
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +73.3 across the last 8 sessions.+47.3 from volume and +26.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 36 pts stock_scores · 07:34 method · 62/38
Compare with MCFT Why is our PTON record what it is? What’s the $6 wall?