MCD McDonald's Corp
$236.90 · +0.00% vs $236.90 close · scored 12:16 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 76/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 76/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+48.0 composite+9.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
76 / 100 · top 6% today
42,619 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
What traded today · weight 62%
+33.2 pts
32,737 calls · 76.8% 9,882 puts
bias +53.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+14.8 pts
43,605 call OI · 69.5% 19,170 put OI
bias +38.9 × 0.38
Equals
+48.0
69% of the score comes from today’s volume, 31% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −7.39% · tape +19.2 · corr -0.67
● peak +51 ◆ +57.1 in a day ▼ low −30.2 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $268 $231 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.39% while the tape has firmed 19.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (94th pct) · quality 82 · 42,619 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MCD’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.20, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on MCD is poor 20% hit rate on 386 closed calls · payoff 0.39×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $236.90 highlighted. The $300 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 6,702). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$236.90 → $236.90
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$236.90 → $236.90
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$236.90 → $236.90
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$236.90 → $236.90
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 166 of these 386 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 18.68 · fwd 18.33 Beta 0.457
52w $229.61–$341.75 IV rank —
Ask about MCD answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +39 to +48 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +39.0 on 7 Oct, then rose to +47.4 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $231.89 to $230.88. It’s at +48.0 now.+33.2 from volume and +14.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 12:16 method · 62/38
Compare with CMG Why is our MCD record what it is? What’s the $300 wall?
What our data projects
+0.04 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#252 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $300 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
McDonald's Corp · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+48.0 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
Why it’s +48
+33.2 volume · 77% calls+14.8 OI · 69% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +57.1 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $268 $231 Price −7.39%, tape +19.2 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (94th pct) · quality 82 · 42,619 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MCD’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.20, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+33.2 pts
32,737 calls · 9,882 puts · bias +53.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+14.8 pts
43,605 call OI · 19,170 put OI · bias +38.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −7.39% · tape +19.2 · corr -0.67
● peak +51 ◆ +57.1 in a day ▼ low −30.2 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $268 $231 Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.39% while the tape has firmed 19.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
20% hit rate · 386 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$236.90 → $236.90
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$236.90 → $236.90
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$236.90 → $236.90
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$236.90 → $236.90
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $300 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MCD
Why did the score rise from +39 to +48 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +39.0 on 7 Oct, then rose to +47.4 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $231.89 to $230.88. It’s at +48.0 now.+33.2 from volume and +14.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 12:16 method · 62/38
Compare with CMG Why is our MCD record what it is? What’s the $300 wall?