MESO Mesoblast Ltd
$13.94 · +0.07% vs $13.93 close · scored 11:29 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 60/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 60/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+57.8 composite−35.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
60 / 100 · top 38% today
1,737 contracts · quality 64 · stability 0.00
has paid +0.01% · n=91,227
What traded today · weight 62%
+22.0 pts
1,176 calls · 67.7% 561 puts
bias +35.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+35.9 pts
1,078 call OI · 97.2% 31 put OI
bias +94.4 × 0.38
Equals
+57.8
38% of the score comes from today’s volume, 62% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −19.57% · tape −36.5 · corr 0.04
▼ low +23.8 ● peak +93 ◆ +38.5 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-08 $15 $14 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 19.57% while the tape has faded 36.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 60 (62th pct) · quality 64 · 1,737 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → +0.01% avg, n=91,227
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=42)
against Our record on MESO is poor 24% hit rate on 361 closed calls · payoff 1.78×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $13.94 highlighted. The $10 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 486). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on MESO Proof 8 Oct · 4h
$13.94 → $13.94
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$13.94 → $13.94
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$13.94 → $13.94
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$13.61 → $13.94
+2.42% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 191 of these 361 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — · fwd 93.93 Beta 1.249
52w $1.88–$3.31 IV rank —
Ask about MESO answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +93 to +58 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +77.5 on 7 Oct, then fell to +57.8 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $13.61 to $13.93. It’s at +57.8 now.+22.0 from volume and +35.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 11:29 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our MESO record what it is? What’s the $10 wall?
What our data projects
+0.21 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#167 of 724 · helped by call/put volume tilt, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $10 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Mesoblast Ltd · Biotechnology
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+57.8 evidence
has paid +0.01% · n=91,227
Why it’s +58
+22.0 volume · 68% calls+35.9 OI · 97% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +38.5 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-08 $15 $14 Price −19.57%, tape −36.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 60 (62th pct) · quality 64 · 1,737 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=42)
against Our record on MESO is poor 24% hit rate on 361 closed calls · payoff 1.78×
What traded today · 62%
+22.0 pts
1,176 calls · 561 puts · bias +35.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+35.9 pts
1,078 call OI · 31 put OI · bias +94.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −19.57% · tape −36.5 · corr 0.04
▼ low +23.8 ● peak +93 ◆ +38.5 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-08 $15 $14 Over 30 days, price has fallen 19.57% while the tape has faded 36.5 points. They agree.
24% hit rate · 361 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$13.94 → $13.94
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$13.94 → $13.94
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$13.94 → $13.94
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$13.61 → $13.94
+2.42% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $10 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MESO
Why did the score drop from +93 to +58 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +77.5 on 7 Oct, then fell to +57.8 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $13.61 to $13.93. It’s at +57.8 now.+22.0 from volume and +35.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 11:29 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our MESO record what it is? What’s the $10 wall?