MLM Martin Marietta Materials Inc
$478.35 · −0.67% vs $481.57 close · scored 20:17 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 54/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 54/100
For the read
open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.4 composite┆ +19.8 yesterday (−0.4) +53.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
54 / 100 · top 53% today
1,219 contracts · quality 77
hasn’t paid −0.25% · n=9,682
What traded today · weight 62%
−2.2 pts
588 calls · 48.2% 631 puts
bias −3.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+21.6 pts
6,133 call OI · 78.4% 1,690 put OI
bias +56.8 × 0.38
Equals
+19.4
9% of the score comes from today’s volume, 91% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.33% · tape +26.7 · corr 0.30
● peak +83 ▼ low −37.4 ◆ +102.5 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-10 $532 $478 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.33% while the tape has firmed 26.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (47th pct) · quality 77 · 1,219 contracts
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=9,682
pass Tape has led price tape has led MLM’s price by 1 day (r=0.24, n=45)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on MLM is poor 14% hit rate on 387 closed calls · payoff 1.83×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $478.35 highlighted. The $540 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,982). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
10 Oct · 4h
$478.35 → $478.35
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$478.35 → $478.35
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$478.35 → $478.35
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$478.35 → $478.35
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 232 of these 387 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 13.94 · fwd 24.10 Beta 1.060
52w $470.19–$710.97 IV rank —
Ask about MLM answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −34 to +19 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −34.4 on 6 Oct, then rose to +68.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $482.27 to $479.01. It’s at +19.4 now.−2.2 from volume and +21.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 20:17 method · 62/38
Compare with VMC Why is our MLM record what it is? What’s the $540 wall?
What our data projects
−0.05 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#305 of 635 · helped by tape composite, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $540 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Martin Marietta Materials Inc · Construction
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.4 ┆ +19.8 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.25% · n=9,682
Why it’s +19
−2.2 volume · 48% calls+21.6 OI · 78% calls
46 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +102.5 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-10 $532 $478 Price −5.33%, tape +26.7 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (47th pct) · quality 77 · 1,219 contracts
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=9,682
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on MLM is poor 14% hit rate on 387 closed calls · payoff 1.83×
What traded today · 62%
−2.2 pts
588 calls · 631 puts · bias −3.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+21.6 pts
6,133 call OI · 1,690 put OI · bias +56.8
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.33% · tape +26.7 · corr 0.30
● peak +83 ▼ low −37.4 ◆ +102.5 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-10 $532 $478 Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.33% while the tape has firmed 26.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
14% hit rate · 387 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$478.35 → $478.35
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$478.35 → $478.35
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$478.35 → $478.35
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$478.35 → $478.35
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $540 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MLM
Why did the score rise from −34 to +19 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −34.4 on 6 Oct, then rose to +68.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $482.27 to $479.01. It’s at +19.4 now.−2.2 from volume and +21.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 20:17 method · 62/38
Compare with VMC Why is our MLM record what it is? What’s the $540 wall?