MOS Mosaic Co
$21.22 · +0.00% vs $21.22 close · scored 10:50 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 61/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 61/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−0.3 composite+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
61 / 100 · top 35% today
6,769 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.00
neutral · −0.20% · n=1,229
What traded today · weight 62%
−14.8 pts
2,574 calls · 38.0% 4,195 puts
bias −23.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+14.5 pts
34,571 call OI · 69.1% 15,434 put OI
bias +38.3 × 0.38
Equals
−0.3
51% of the score comes from today’s volume, 49% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −20.02% · tape −61.6 · corr 0.33
● peak +61 ◆ −85.1 in a day ▼ low −32.1 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-10 $27 $21 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 20.02% while the tape has faded 61.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 61 (65th pct) · quality 79 · 6,769 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 63
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.20% avg, n=1,229
pass Tape has led price tape has led MOS’s price by 2 days (r=-0.27, n=44)
note Our record on MOS is mixed 42% hit rate on 342 closed calls · payoff 3.23×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $21.22. The $25 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 9,588). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
2 Oct · 4h
$21.22 → $21.22
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$21.33 → $21.33
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$21.55 → $21.55
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$20.83 → $20.83
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 138 of these 342 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 12.41 · fwd 21.07 Beta 0.850
52w $19.80–$36.00 IV rank —
Ask about MOS answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +9 to +0 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +8.7 on 1 Oct, then fell to −0.3 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $21.65 to $21.55. It’s at −0.3 now.−14.8 from volume and +14.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 10:50 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our MOS record what it is? What’s the $25 wall?
What our data projects
+0.01 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#264 of 635 · helped by tape composite, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $25 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Mosaic Co · Chemicals
Neutral, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−0.3 evidence
neutral · −0.20% · n=1,229
Why it’s +0
−14.8 volume · 38% calls+14.5 OI · 69% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −85.1 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-10 $27 $21 Price −20.02%, tape −61.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 61 (65th pct) · quality 79 · 6,769 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 63
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.20% avg, n=1,229
note Our record on MOS is mixed 42% hit rate on 342 closed calls · payoff 3.23×
What traded today · 62%
−14.8 pts
2,574 calls · 4,195 puts · bias −23.9
What’s on the books · 38%
+14.5 pts
34,571 call OI · 15,434 put OI · bias +38.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −20.02% · tape −61.6 · corr 0.33
● peak +61 ◆ −85.1 in a day ▼ low −32.1 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-10 $27 $21 Over 30 days, price has fallen 20.02% while the tape has faded 61.6 points. They agree.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
42% hit rate · 342 closed
2 Oct · 4h
$21.22 → $21.22
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$21.33 → $21.33
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$21.55 → $21.55
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$20.83 → $20.83
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $25 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MOS
Why did the score drop from +9 to +0 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +8.7 on 1 Oct, then fell to −0.3 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $21.65 to $21.55. It’s at −0.3 now.−14.8 from volume and +14.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 10:50 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our MOS record what it is? What’s the $25 wall?