MP MP Materials Corp
$47.00 · +0.00% vs $47.00 close · scored 17:59 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 76/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 6.5 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 76/100
For the read
signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Neutral, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+9.0 composite┆ +2.4 yesterday (+6.5) +0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
76 / 100 · top 7% today
15,575 contracts · quality 92 · stability 0.91
neutral · −0.53% · n=4,464
What traded today · weight 62%
+3.6 pts
8,245 calls · 52.9% 7,330 puts
bias +5.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+5.3 pts
45,797 call OI · 57.0% 34,530 put OI
bias +14.0 × 0.38
Equals
+9.0
41% of the score comes from today’s volume, 59% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.81% · tape −24.2 · corr 0.32
● peak +42 ▼ low −11.3 ◆ +22.1 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-10 $59 $45 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.81% while the tape has faded 24.2 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (93th pct) · quality 92 · 15,575 contracts
pass Stable 0.91 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.53% avg, n=4,464
pass Tape has led price tape has led MP’s price by 2 days (r=0.20, n=44)
against Our record on MP is poor 20% hit rate on 743 closed calls · payoff 0.86×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $47.00. The $50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 10,568). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
2 Oct · 4h
$47.00 → $47.00
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$46.45 → $46.45
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$46.07 → $46.07
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$45.10 → $45.10
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 451 of these 743 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — · fwd 2,068.01 Beta 2.116
52w $37.81–$100.25 IV rank —
Ask about MP answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +2 to +9 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +2.4 on 1 Oct, then rose to +9.0 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $47.29 to $46.07. It’s at +9.0 now.+3.6 from volume and +5.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 17:59 method · 62/38
Compare with NB Why is our MP record what it is? What’s the $50 wall?
What our data projects
+0.51 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#64 of 724 · helped by quality, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $50 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
MP Materials Corp · Metals & Mining
Neutral, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+9.0 ┆ +2.4 yday evidence
neutral · −0.53% · n=4,464
Why it’s +9
+3.6 volume · 53% calls+5.3 OI · 57% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +22.1 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-10 $59 $45 Price −13.81%, tape −24.2 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (93th pct) · quality 92 · 15,575 contracts
pass Stable 0.91 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.53% avg, n=4,464
against Our record on MP is poor 20% hit rate on 743 closed calls · payoff 0.86×
What traded today · 62%
+3.6 pts
8,245 calls · 7,330 puts · bias +5.9
What’s on the books · 38%
+5.3 pts
45,797 call OI · 34,530 put OI · bias +14.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.81% · tape −24.2 · corr 0.32
● peak +42 ▼ low −11.3 ◆ +22.1 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-10 $59 $45 Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.81% while the tape has faded 24.2 points. They agree.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
20% hit rate · 743 closed
2 Oct · 4h
$47.00 → $47.00
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$46.45 → $46.45
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$46.07 → $46.07
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$45.10 → $45.10
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $50 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MP
Why did the score rise from +2 to +9 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +2.4 on 1 Oct, then rose to +9.0 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $47.29 to $46.07. It’s at +9.0 now.+3.6 from volume and +5.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 17:59 method · 62/38
Compare with NB Why is our MP record what it is? What’s the $50 wall?