MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp
$422.33 · +0.00% vs $422.33 close · scored 05:29 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 66/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 66/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−18.3 composite+26.3 vs a week ago
Evidence
66 / 100 · top 22% today
1,932 contracts · quality 77 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
What traded today · weight 62%
−9.8 pts
813 calls · 42.1% 1,119 puts
bias −15.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−8.5 pts
12,401 call OI · 38.9% 19,495 put OI
bias −22.2 × 0.38
Equals
−18.3
54% of the score comes from today’s volume, 46% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +6.17% · tape −7.1 · corr -0.17
◆ −70.4 in a day ▼ low −45.5 ● peak +33 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $426 $355 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 6.17% while the tape has faded 7.1 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 77 · 1,932 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
pass Tape has led price tape has led MPC’s price by 3 days (r=0.42, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
note Our record on MPC is mixed 38% hit rate on 1796 closed calls · payoff 0.61×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $422.33. The $340 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,204).
38%
hit rate · 1796 closed
3 Oct · 4h
$422.33 → $422.33
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$411.91 → $411.91
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$420.15 → $420.15
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$421.56 → $421.56
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 279 of these 1796 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 14.19 · fwd 8.25 Beta 0.543
52w $161.93–$437.67 IV rank —
Ask about MPC answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −31 to −18 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −44.6 on 2 Oct, then rose to −18.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $420.15 to $422.33. It’s at −18.3 now.−9.8 from volume and −8.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 05:29 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our MPC record what it is? What’s the $340 wall?
What our data projects
+0.28 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#132 of 635 · helped by tape composite, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $340 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Marathon Petroleum Corp · Energy
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−18.3 evidence
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
Why it’s −18
−9.8 volume · 42% calls−8.5 OI · 39% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −70.4 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $426 $355 Price +6.17%, tape −7.1 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 77 · 1,932 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−9.8 pts
813 calls · 1,119 puts · bias −15.8
What’s on the books · 38%
−8.5 pts
12,401 call OI · 19,495 put OI · bias −22.2
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +6.17% · tape −7.1 · corr -0.17
◆ −70.4 in a day ▼ low −45.5 ● peak +33 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $426 $355 Over 30 days, price has risen 6.17% while the tape has faded 7.1 points. The two are drifting apart.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
38% hit rate · 1796 closed
3 Oct · 4h
$422.33 → $422.33
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$411.91 → $411.91
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$420.15 → $420.15
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$421.56 → $421.56
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $340 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MPC
Why did the score rise from −31 to −18 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −44.6 on 2 Oct, then rose to −18.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $420.15 to $422.33. It’s at −18.3 now.−9.8 from volume and −8.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 05:29 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our MPC record what it is? What’s the $340 wall?