MRNA Moderna Inc
$194.91 · +2.89% vs $189.43 close · scored 19:44 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 75/100
What changed
Composite weakened 31.6 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 75/100
For the read
signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Neutral, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−5.9 composite┆ +25.7 yesterday (−31.6) −17.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
75 / 100 · top 8% today
52,509 contracts · quality 92 · stability 0.84
neutral · +1.26% · n=1,013
What traded today · weight 62%
−7.2 pts
23,225 calls · 44.2% 29,284 puts
bias −11.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+1.2 pts
103,149 call OI · 51.6% 96,780 put OI
bias +3.2 × 0.38
Equals
−5.9
86% of the score comes from today’s volume, 14% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +30.15% · tape −35.6 · corr -0.25
● peak +61 ▼ low −12.0 ◆ −73.5 in a day 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-07 10-08 $199 $99 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 30.15% while the tape has faded 35.6 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 75 (92th pct) · quality 92 · 52,509 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · high liquidity → +1.26% avg, n=1,013
pass Tape has led price tape has led MRNA’s price by 1 day (r=-0.19, n=49)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on MRNA is poor 23% hit rate on 761 closed calls · payoff 2.73×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $194.91 highlighted. The $207.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 10,469). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on MRNA Proof 8 Oct · 4h
$194.91 → $194.91
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$189.43 → $189.43
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$190.83 → $190.83
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$188.94 → $188.94
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 429 of these 761 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E — Beta 1.210
52w $22.28–$202.67 IV rank —
Ask about MRNA answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +12 to −6 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +25.7 on 7 Oct, then fell to −5.9 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $189.43 to $189.43. It’s at −5.9 now.−7.2 from volume and +1.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 50 pts stock_scores · 19:44 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our MRNA record what it is? What’s the $207.5 wall?
What our data projects
+0.33 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#123 of 724 · helped by quality, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $207.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Moderna Inc · Biotechnology
Neutral, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−5.9 ┆ +25.7 yday evidence
neutral · +1.26% · n=1,013
Why it’s −6
−7.2 volume · 44% calls+1.2 OI · 52% calls
50 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −73.5 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-07 10-08 $199 $99 Price +30.15%, tape −35.6 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 75 (92th pct) · quality 92 · 52,509 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · high liquidity → +1.26% avg, n=1,013
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−7.2 pts
23,225 calls · 29,284 puts · bias −11.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+1.2 pts
103,149 call OI · 96,780 put OI · bias +3.2
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +30.15% · tape −35.6 · corr -0.25
● peak +61 ▼ low −12.0 ◆ −73.5 in a day 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-07 10-08 $199 $99 Over 30 days, price has risen 30.15% while the tape has faded 35.6 points. The two are drifting apart.
23% hit rate · 761 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$194.91 → $194.91
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$189.43 → $189.43
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$190.83 → $190.83
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$188.94 → $188.94
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $207.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MRNA
Why did the score drop from +12 to −6 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +25.7 on 7 Oct, then fell to −5.9 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $189.43 to $189.43. It’s at −5.9 now.−7.2 from volume and +1.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 50 pts stock_scores · 19:44 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our MRNA record what it is? What’s the $207.5 wall?