MS Morgan Stanley
$188.04 · +0.32% vs $187.44 close · scored 15:44 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 64/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 64/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+24.9 composite+11.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
64 / 100 · top 28% today
7,676 contracts · quality 80 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
What traded today · weight 62%
+13.5 pts
4,675 calls · 60.9% 3,001 puts
bias +21.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+11.4 pts
55,227 call OI · 65.0% 29,741 put OI
bias +30.0 × 0.38
Equals
+24.9
54% of the score comes from today’s volume, 46% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.32% · tape +30.8 · corr -0.42
▼ low −20.0 ◆ −41.1 in a day ● peak +31 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $218 $187 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.32% while the tape has firmed 30.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 64 (72th pct) · quality 80 · 7,676 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MS’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.29, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
note Our record on MS is mixed 36% hit rate on 409 closed calls · payoff 1.36×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $188.04 highlighted. The $205 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 12,567). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$188.04 → $188.04
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$187.44 → $188.04
+0.32% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$187.44 → $188.04
+0.32% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$187.44 → $188.04
+0.32% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 161 of these 409 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 14.85 · fwd 14.86 Beta 1.239
52w $151.84–$232.25 IV rank —
Ask about MS answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +13 to +25 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +13.0 on 7 Oct, then rose to +30.9 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $190.41 to $189.71. It’s at +24.9 now.+13.5 from volume and +11.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our MS record what it is? What’s the $205 wall?
What our data projects
+0.17 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#182 of 635 · helped by price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $205 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Morgan Stanley · Financial Services
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+24.9 evidence
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
Why it’s +25
+13.5 volume · 61% calls+11.4 OI · 65% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −41.1 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $218 $187 Price −13.32%, tape +30.8 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 64 (72th pct) · quality 80 · 7,676 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MS’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.29, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+13.5 pts
4,675 calls · 3,001 puts · bias +21.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+11.4 pts
55,227 call OI · 29,741 put OI · bias +30.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.32% · tape +30.8 · corr -0.42
▼ low −20.0 ◆ −41.1 in a day ● peak +31 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $218 $187 Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.32% while the tape has firmed 30.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
36% hit rate · 409 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$188.04 → $188.04
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$187.44 → $188.04
+0.32% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$187.44 → $188.04
+0.32% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$187.44 → $188.04
+0.32% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $205 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MS
Why did the score rise from +13 to +25 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +13.0 on 7 Oct, then rose to +30.9 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $190.41 to $189.71. It’s at +24.9 now.+13.5 from volume and +11.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our MS record what it is? What’s the $205 wall?