NOG Northern Oil and Gas Inc
$25.47 · +1.31% vs $25.14 close · scored 15:47 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 68/100
What changed
Composite weakened 2.5 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 68/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+32.5 composite┆ +35.0 yesterday (−2.5) +41.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
68 / 100 · top 17% today
1,207 contracts · quality 84 · stability 0.78
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+19.2 pts
790 calls · 65.5% 417 puts
bias +30.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+13.3 pts
14,452 call OI · 67.5% 6,963 put OI
bias +35.0 × 0.38
Equals
+32.5
59% of the score comes from today’s volume, 41% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.10% · tape −4.1 · corr -0.18
● peak +85 ▼ low −9.4 ◆ +66.6 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $25 $23 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.10% while the tape has barely moved (−4.1). They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 68 (83th pct) · quality 84 · 1,207 contracts
note Jumpy 0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led NOG’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.34, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on NOG is poor 20% hit rate on 320 closed calls · payoff 0.51×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $25.47 highlighted. The $20 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 4,488). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$25.47 → $25.47
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$25.28 → $25.47
+0.77% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$25.14 → $25.47
+1.31% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$25.14 → $25.47
+1.31% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 145 of these 320 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 65.51 · fwd 6.10 Beta 0.934
52w $17.18–$31.17 IV rank —
Ask about NOG answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −9 to +32 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −9.4 on 2 Oct, then rose to +57.2 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $23.52 to $23.83. It’s at +32.5 now.+19.2 from volume and +13.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:47 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our NOG record what it is? What’s the $20 wall?
What our data projects
+0.03 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#258 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $20 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Northern Oil and Gas Inc · Energy
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+32.5 ┆ +35.0 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +32
+19.2 volume · 65% calls+13.3 OI · 67% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +66.6 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $25 $23 Price −2.10%, tape −4.1 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 68 (83th pct) · quality 84 · 1,207 contracts
note Jumpy 0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led NOG’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.34, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+19.2 pts
790 calls · 417 puts · bias +30.9
What’s on the books · 38%
+13.3 pts
14,452 call OI · 6,963 put OI · bias +35.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.10% · tape −4.1 · corr -0.18
● peak +85 ▼ low −9.4 ◆ +66.6 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $25 $23 Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.10% while the tape has barely moved (−4.1). They agree.
20% hit rate · 320 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$25.47 → $25.47
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$25.28 → $25.47
+0.77% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$25.14 → $25.47
+1.31% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$25.14 → $25.47
+1.31% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $20 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about NOG
Why did the score rise from −9 to +32 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −9.4 on 2 Oct, then rose to +57.2 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $23.52 to $23.83. It’s at +32.5 now.+19.2 from volume and +13.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:47 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our NOG record what it is? What’s the $20 wall?