PKG Packaging Corp of America
$229.74 · −0.09% vs $229.94 close · scored 14:20 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 39/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 39/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak
The read
Neutral, thinly evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+0.3 composite−64.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
39 / 100 · top 83% today
52 contracts · quality 49 · stability 0.00
neutral · +9.94% · n=4,567
What traded today · weight 62%
−19.1 pts
18 calls · 34.6% 34 puts
bias −30.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+19.4 pts
139 call OI · 75.5% 45 put OI
bias +51.1 × 0.38
Equals
+0.3
50% of the score comes from today’s volume, 50% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.98% · tape −13.7 · corr 0.03
▼ low −35.8 ◆ −120.8 in a day ● peak +87 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $247 $229 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.98% while the tape has faded 13.7 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 39 (17th pct) · quality 49 · 52 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · low liquidity → +9.94% avg, n=4,567
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led PKG’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.21, n=44)
against Our record on PKG is poor 34% hit rate on 288 closed calls · payoff 2.06×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $229.74 highlighted. The $260 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 67).
9 Oct · 4h
$229.74 → $229.74
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$229.94 → $229.74
−0.09% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$229.94 → $229.74
−0.09% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$229.94 → $229.74
−0.09% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 166 of these 288 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 29.61 · fwd 19.27 Beta 0.808
52w $191.50–$259.98 IV rank —
Ask about PKG answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +87 to +0 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +64.7 on 6 Oct, then fell to +28.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $228.54 to $228.54. It’s at +0.3 now.−19.1 from volume and +19.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:20 method · 62/38
Compare with AVY Why is our PKG record what it is? What’s the $260 wall?
What our data projects
−0.57 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#595 of 635 · helped by tape composite, last day's move, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $260 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Packaging Corp of America · Packaging
Neutral, thinly evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+0.3 evidence
neutral · +9.94% · n=4,567
Why it’s +0
−19.1 volume · 35% calls+19.4 OI · 76% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −120.8 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $247 $229 Price −2.98%, tape −13.7 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 39 (17th pct) · quality 49 · 52 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · low liquidity → +9.94% avg, n=4,567
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led PKG’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.21, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
−19.1 pts
18 calls · 34 puts · bias −30.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+19.4 pts
139 call OI · 45 put OI · bias +51.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.98% · tape −13.7 · corr 0.03
▼ low −35.8 ◆ −120.8 in a day ● peak +87 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $247 $229 Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.98% while the tape has faded 13.7 points. They agree.
34% hit rate · 288 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$229.74 → $229.74
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$229.94 → $229.74
−0.09% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$229.94 → $229.74
−0.09% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$229.94 → $229.74
−0.09% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $260 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about PKG
Why did the score drop from +87 to +0 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +64.7 on 6 Oct, then fell to +28.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $228.54 to $228.54. It’s at +0.3 now.−19.1 from volume and +19.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:20 method · 62/38
Compare with AVY Why is our PKG record what it is? What’s the $260 wall?