PM Philip Morris International Inc
$200.23 · −0.13% vs $200.50 close · scored 15:43 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 54/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 54/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.6 composite−2.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
54 / 100 · top 53% today
2,853 contracts · quality 78 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
What traded today · weight 62%
+21.2 pts
1,914 calls · 67.1% 939 puts
bias +34.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−1.6 pts
12,663 call OI · 47.9% 13,748 put OI
bias −4.1 × 0.38
Equals
+19.6
93% of the score comes from today’s volume, 7% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +8.54% · tape −6.0 · corr 0.12
▼ low −30.4 ◆ −39.4 in a day ● peak +37 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $201 $183 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 8.54% while the tape has faded 6.0 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (47th pct) · quality 78 · 2,853 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 74
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led PM’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.32, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on PM is poor 27% hit rate on 294 closed calls · payoff 1.40×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $200.23 highlighted. The $190 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,951). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$200.23 → $200.23
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$200.50 → $200.23
−0.13% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$200.50 → $200.23
−0.13% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$200.50 → $200.23
−0.13% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 155 of these 294 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 27.59 · fwd 21.16 Beta 0.374
52w $142.11–$207.76 IV rank —
Ask about PM answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +37 to +20 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +37.1 on 1 Oct, then fell to +21.7 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $190.58 to $188.18. It’s at +19.6 now.+21.2 from volume and −1.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with MO Why is our PM record what it is? What’s the $190 wall?
What our data projects
−0.10 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#330 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $190 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Philip Morris International Inc · Tobacco
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.6 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
Why it’s +20
+21.2 volume · 67% calls−1.6 OI · 48% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −39.4 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $201 $183 Price +8.54%, tape −6.0 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (47th pct) · quality 78 · 2,853 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 74
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led PM’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.32, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+21.2 pts
1,914 calls · 939 puts · bias +34.2
What’s on the books · 38%
−1.6 pts
12,663 call OI · 13,748 put OI · bias −4.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +8.54% · tape −6.0 · corr 0.12
▼ low −30.4 ◆ −39.4 in a day ● peak +37 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $201 $183 Over 30 days, price has risen 8.54% while the tape has faded 6.0 points. The two are drifting apart.
27% hit rate · 294 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$200.23 → $200.23
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$200.50 → $200.23
−0.13% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$200.50 → $200.23
−0.13% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$200.50 → $200.23
−0.13% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $190 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about PM
Why did the score drop from +37 to +20 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +37.1 on 1 Oct, then fell to +21.7 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $190.58 to $188.18. It’s at +19.6 now.+21.2 from volume and −1.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with MO Why is our PM record what it is? What’s the $190 wall?