PSX Phillips 66
$281.60 · +0.00% vs $281.60 close · scored 14:42 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 65/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 29.5 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 65/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+21.8 composite┆ −7.8 yesterday (+29.5) +38.3 vs a week ago
Evidence
65 / 100 · top 25% today
2,698 contracts · quality 87 · stability 0.83
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
What traded today · weight 62%
+26.9 pts
1,935 calls · 71.7% 763 puts
bias +43.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−5.2 pts
9,363 call OI · 43.2% 12,315 put OI
bias −13.6 × 0.38
Equals
+21.8
84% of the score comes from today’s volume, 16% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +8.67% · tape +24.3 · corr 0.13
● peak +45 ▼ low −58.4 ◆ −76.7 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $282 $240 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 8.67% while the tape has firmed 24.3 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 87 · 2,698 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led PSX’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.32, n=44)
note Our record on PSX is mixed 36% hit rate on 282 closed calls · payoff 1.58×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $281.60 highlighted. The $200 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 4,624). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$281.60 → $281.60
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$281.60 → $281.60
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$281.60 → $281.60
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$281.60 → $281.60
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 144 of these 282 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 14.88 · fwd 9.94 Beta 0.712
52w $126.74–$277.12 IV rank —
Ask about PSX answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −17 to +22 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −16.5 on 7 Oct, then rose to +22.8 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $268.87 to $268.87. It’s at +21.8 now.+26.9 from volume and −5.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our PSX record what it is? What’s the $200 wall?
What our data projects
+0.09 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#220 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $200 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Phillips 66 · Energy
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+21.8 ┆ −7.8 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
Why it’s +22
+26.9 volume · 72% calls−5.2 OI · 43% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −76.7 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $282 $240 Price +8.67%, tape +24.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 87 · 2,698 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led PSX’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.32, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+26.9 pts
1,935 calls · 763 puts · bias +43.4
What’s on the books · 38%
−5.2 pts
9,363 call OI · 12,315 put OI · bias −13.6
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +8.67% · tape +24.3 · corr 0.13
● peak +45 ▼ low −58.4 ◆ −76.7 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $282 $240 Over 30 days, price has risen 8.67% while the tape has firmed 24.3 points. They agree.
36% hit rate · 282 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$281.60 → $281.60
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$281.60 → $281.60
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$281.60 → $281.60
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$281.60 → $281.60
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $200 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about PSX
Why did the score rise from −17 to +22 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −16.5 on 7 Oct, then rose to +22.8 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $268.87 to $268.87. It’s at +21.8 now.+26.9 from volume and −5.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our PSX record what it is? What’s the $200 wall?