RILY BRC Group Holdings Inc
$5.16 · +0.00% vs $5.16 close · scored 14:28 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 71/100
What changed
Composite weakened 1.7 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 71/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+81.5 composite┆ +83.2 yesterday (−1.6) −1.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
71 / 100 · top 13% today
5,416 contracts · quality 81 · stability 0.76
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
What traded today · weight 62%
+52.6 pts
5,006 calls · 92.4% 410 puts
bias +84.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+28.9 pts
28,950 call OI · 88.1% 3,923 put OI
bias +76.1 × 0.38
Equals
+81.5
65% of the score comes from today’s volume, 35% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −26.70% · tape +71.1 · corr -0.28
● peak +86 ▼ low −20.3 ◆ −79.3 in a day 08-24 08-31 09-07 09-14 09-21 09-28 10-05 10-09 $7 $5 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 26.70% while the tape has firmed 71.1 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 71 (87th pct) · quality 81 · 5,416 contracts
note Jumpy 0.76 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led RILY’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.35, n=46)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on RILY is poor 21% hit rate on 1662 closed calls · payoff 0.91×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $5.16 highlighted. The $5 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 11,393). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on RILY Proof 21%
hit rate · 1662 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$5.16 → $5.16
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$5.16 → $5.16
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$5.16 → $5.16
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$5.16 → $5.16
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 865 of these 1662 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E 0.49 · fwd 0.66 Beta 1.219
52w $3.64–$11.24 IV rank —
Ask about RILY answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +81.5?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 1.5 points of +81.5 across the last 8 sessions.+52.6 from volume and +28.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 14:28 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our RILY record what it is? What’s the $5 wall?
What our data projects
+0.32 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#122 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $5 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
BRC Group Holdings Inc · Financial Services
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+81.5 ┆ +83.2 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
Why it’s +82
+52.6 volume · 92% calls+28.9 OI · 88% calls
47 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −79.3 08-24 08-31 09-07 09-14 09-21 09-28 10-05 10-09 $7 $5 Price −26.70%, tape +71.1 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 71 (87th pct) · quality 81 · 5,416 contracts
note Jumpy 0.76 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led RILY’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.35, n=46)
What traded today · 62%
+52.6 pts
5,006 calls · 410 puts · bias +84.9
What’s on the books · 38%
+28.9 pts
28,950 call OI · 3,923 put OI · bias +76.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −26.70% · tape +71.1 · corr -0.28
● peak +86 ▼ low −20.3 ◆ −79.3 in a day 08-24 08-31 09-07 09-14 09-21 09-28 10-05 10-09 $7 $5 Over 30 days, price has fallen 26.70% while the tape has firmed 71.1 points. The two are drifting apart.
21% hit rate · 1662 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$5.16 → $5.16
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$5.16 → $5.16
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$5.16 → $5.16
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$5.16 → $5.16
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $5 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about RILY
What is behind today’s +81.5?
The composite has held within 1.5 points of +81.5 across the last 8 sessions.+52.6 from volume and +28.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 47 pts stock_scores · 14:28 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our RILY record what it is? What’s the $5 wall?