RY Royal Bank of Canada
$190.61 · +0.03% vs $190.56 close · scored 15:48 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 58/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 4.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 58/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−14.0 composite┆ −18.0 yesterday (+4.1) +14.3 vs a week ago
Evidence
58 / 100 · top 40% today
2,309 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.71
has paid −0.56% · n=5,617
What traded today · weight 62%
−15.6 pts
864 calls · 37.4% 1,445 puts
bias −25.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+1.7 pts
7,702 call OI · 52.2% 7,059 put OI
bias +4.4 × 0.38
Equals
−14.0
90% of the score comes from today’s volume, 10% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −8.82% · tape −3.3 · corr -0.33
● peak +56 ▼ low −47.4 ◆ −80.4 in a day 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $212 $191 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.82% while the tape has barely moved (−3.3). They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 58 (60th pct) · quality 82 · 2,309 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 63
pass This kind of read has paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −0.56% avg, n=5,617
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led RY’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.26, n=44)
against Our record on RY is poor 29% hit rate on 486 closed calls · payoff 1.90×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $190.61 highlighted. The $220 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,326). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$190.61 → $190.61
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$190.05 → $190.61
+0.29% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$190.56 → $190.61
+0.03% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$190.56 → $190.61
+0.03% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 252 of these 486 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 16.94 · fwd 15.93 Beta 0.582
52w $200.82–$306.38 IV rank —
Ask about RY answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −28 to −14 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −28.3 on 2 Oct, then rose to +35.7 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $195.36 to $195.67. It’s at −14.0 now.−15.6 from volume and +1.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:48 method · 62/38
Compare with NU Why is our RY record what it is? What’s the $220 wall?
What our data projects
+0.04 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#283 of 780 · helped by quality, tape composite, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $220 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Royal Bank of Canada · Banking
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−14.0 ┆ −18.0 yday evidence
has paid −0.56% · n=5,617
Why it’s −14
−15.6 volume · 37% calls+1.7 OI · 52% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −80.4 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $212 $191 Price −8.82%, tape −3.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 58 (60th pct) · quality 82 · 2,309 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 63
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led RY’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.26, n=44)
against Our record on RY is poor 29% hit rate on 486 closed calls · payoff 1.90×
What traded today · 62%
−15.6 pts
864 calls · 1,445 puts · bias −25.2
What’s on the books · 38%
+1.7 pts
7,702 call OI · 7,059 put OI · bias +4.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −8.82% · tape −3.3 · corr -0.33
● peak +56 ▼ low −47.4 ◆ −80.4 in a day 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $212 $191 Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.82% while the tape has barely moved (−3.3). They agree.
29% hit rate · 486 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$190.61 → $190.61
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$190.05 → $190.61
+0.29% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$190.56 → $190.61
+0.03% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$190.56 → $190.61
+0.03% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $220 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about RY
Why did the score rise from −28 to −14 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −28.3 on 2 Oct, then rose to +35.7 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $195.36 to $195.67. It’s at −14.0 now.−15.6 from volume and +1.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:48 method · 62/38
Compare with NU Why is our RY record what it is? What’s the $220 wall?