SIRI Sirius XM Holdings Inc
$26.95 · +0.75% vs $26.75 close · scored 14:31 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 65/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 65/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+60.3 composite+18.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
65 / 100 · top 25% today
3,565 contracts · quality 80 · stability 0.00
has paid +0.01% · n=91,227
What traded today · weight 62%
+44.5 pts
3,061 calls · 85.9% 504 puts
bias +71.7 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+15.9 pts
193,626 call OI · 70.9% 79,546 put OI
bias +41.8 × 0.38
Equals
+60.3
74% of the score comes from today’s volume, 26% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −7.12% · tape −25.8 · corr 0.44
● peak +98 ▼ low +3.3 ◆ +88.7 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $30 $26 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.12% while the tape has faded 25.8 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 80 · 3,565 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 37
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → +0.01% avg, n=91,227
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led SIRI’s tape by 2 days (r=0.42, n=43)
against Our record on SIRI is poor 9% hit rate on 2000 closed calls · payoff 2.32×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $26.95 highlighted. The $26 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 29,989). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on SIRI Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$26.95 → $26.95
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$26.33 → $26.95
+2.35% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$26.33 → $26.95
+2.35% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$26.33 → $26.95
+2.35% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1634 of these 2000 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 9.84 · fwd 8.41 Beta 1.006
52w $19.77–$32.66 IV rank —
Ask about SIRI answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +42 to +60 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +41.5 on 7 Oct, then rose to +64.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $25.83 to $25.83. It’s at +60.3 now.+44.5 from volume and +15.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 14:31 method · 62/38
Compare with AMC Why is our SIRI record what it is? What’s the $26 wall?
What our data projects
−0.33 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#579 of 724 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $26 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc · Media
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+60.3 evidence
has paid +0.01% · n=91,227
Why it’s +60
+44.5 volume · 86% calls+15.9 OI · 71% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +88.7 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $30 $26 Price −7.12%, tape −25.8 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 80 · 3,565 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 37
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led SIRI’s tape by 2 days (r=0.42, n=43)
against Our record on SIRI is poor 9% hit rate on 2000 closed calls · payoff 2.32×
What traded today · 62%
+44.5 pts
3,061 calls · 504 puts · bias +71.7
What’s on the books · 38%
+15.9 pts
193,626 call OI · 79,546 put OI · bias +41.8
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −7.12% · tape −25.8 · corr 0.44
● peak +98 ▼ low +3.3 ◆ +88.7 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $30 $26 Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.12% while the tape has faded 25.8 points. They agree.
9% hit rate · 2000 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$26.95 → $26.95
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$26.33 → $26.95
+2.35% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$26.33 → $26.95
+2.35% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$26.33 → $26.95
+2.35% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $26 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SIRI
Why did the score rise from +42 to +60 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +41.5 on 7 Oct, then rose to +64.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $25.83 to $25.83. It’s at +60.3 now.+44.5 from volume and +15.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 14:31 method · 62/38
Compare with AMC Why is our SIRI record what it is? What’s the $26 wall?