SMCI Super Micro Computer Inc
$43.24 · −0.05% vs $43.26 close · scored 09:34 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 76/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 76/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+44.7 composite+0.3 vs a week ago
Evidence
76 / 100 · top 6% today
128,639 contracts · quality 83 · stability 0.00
has paid +1.17% · n=12,971
What traded today · weight 62%
+42.3 pts
108,155 calls · 84.1% 20,484 puts
bias +68.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+2.4 pts
132,053 call OI · 53.2% 116,244 put OI
bias +6.4 × 0.38
Equals
+44.7
95% of the score comes from today’s volume, 5% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +6.19% · tape +6.6 · corr 0.06
● peak +69 ▼ low +23.9 ◆ −28.9 in a day 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $44 $36 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 6.19% while the tape has firmed 6.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (94th pct) · quality 83 · 128,639 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 34
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.17% avg, n=12,971
pass Tape has led price tape has led SMCI’s price by 2 days (r=0.26, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on SMCI is poor 25% hit rate on 700 closed calls · payoff 2.14×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $43.24 highlighted. The $50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 21,186). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on SMCI Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$41.34 → $41.34
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$43.69 → $43.69
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$44.13 → $44.13
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$41.92 → $41.92
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 401 of these 700 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 12.66 · fwd 9.16 Beta 2.203
52w $19.48–$58.78 IV rank —
Ask about SMCI answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +52 to +45 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +52.1 on 2 Oct, then fell to +44.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $41.92 to $43.69. It’s at +44.7 now.+42.3 from volume and +2.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 09:34 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our SMCI record what it is? What’s the $50 wall?
What our data projects
+0.96 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#4 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $50 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Super Micro Computer Inc · Technology
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+44.7 evidence
has paid +1.17% · n=12,971
Why it’s +45
+42.3 volume · 84% calls+2.4 OI · 53% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −28.9 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $44 $36 Price +6.19%, tape +6.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (94th pct) · quality 83 · 128,639 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 34
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on SMCI is poor 25% hit rate on 700 closed calls · payoff 2.14×
What traded today · 62%
+42.3 pts
108,155 calls · 20,484 puts · bias +68.2
What’s on the books · 38%
+2.4 pts
132,053 call OI · 116,244 put OI · bias +6.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +6.19% · tape +6.6 · corr 0.06
● peak +69 ▼ low +23.9 ◆ −28.9 in a day 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $44 $36 Over 30 days, price has risen 6.19% while the tape has firmed 6.6 points. They agree.
25% hit rate · 700 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$41.34 → $41.34
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$43.69 → $43.69
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$44.13 → $44.13
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$41.92 → $41.92
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $50 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SMCI
Why did the score drop from +52 to +45 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +52.1 on 2 Oct, then fell to +44.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $41.92 to $43.69. It’s at +44.7 now.+42.3 from volume and +2.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 09:34 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our SMCI record what it is? What’s the $50 wall?