SMCI Super Micro Computer Inc
$43.24 · −0.05% vs $43.26 close · scored 10:32 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 78/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 78/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+48.2 composite+3.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
78 / 100 · top 5% today
131,825 contracts · quality 83
has paid +1.17% · n=12,971
What traded today · weight 62%
+41.6 pts
110,116 calls · 83.5% 21,709 puts
bias +67.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+6.6 pts
138,572 call OI · 58.7% 97,674 put OI
bias +17.3 × 0.38
Equals
+48.2
86% of the score comes from today’s volume, 14% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +6.19% · tape +10.1 · corr 0.06
● peak +69 ▼ low +23.9 ◆ −28.9 in a day 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-20 09-28 10-06 10-10 $44 $35 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 6.19% while the tape has firmed 10.1 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 78 (95th pct) · quality 83 · 131,825 contracts
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.17% avg, n=12,971
pass Tape has led price tape has led SMCI’s price by 2 days (r=0.26, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on SMCI is poor 25% hit rate on 700 closed calls · payoff 2.14×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $43.24 highlighted. The $50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 21,186). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on SMCI Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$41.34 → $41.34
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$43.69 → $43.69
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$44.13 → $44.13
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$41.92 → $41.92
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 401 of these 700 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 12.66 · fwd 9.16 Beta 2.203
52w $19.48–$58.78 IV rank —
Ask about SMCI answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +52 to +48 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +52.1 on 2 Oct, then fell to +44.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $41.92 to $43.69. It’s at +48.2 now.+41.6 from volume and +6.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 10:32 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our SMCI record what it is? What’s the $50 wall?
What our data projects
+0.96 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#4 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $50 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Super Micro Computer Inc · Technology
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+48.2 evidence
has paid +1.17% · n=12,971
Why it’s +48
+41.6 volume · 84% calls+6.6 OI · 59% calls
52 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −28.9 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-20 09-28 10-06 10-10 $44 $35 Price +6.19%, tape +10.1 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 78 (95th pct) · quality 83 · 131,825 contracts
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.17% avg, n=12,971
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on SMCI is poor 25% hit rate on 700 closed calls · payoff 2.14×
What traded today · 62%
+41.6 pts
110,116 calls · 21,709 puts · bias +67.1
What’s on the books · 38%
+6.6 pts
138,572 call OI · 97,674 put OI · bias +17.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +6.19% · tape +10.1 · corr 0.06
● peak +69 ▼ low +23.9 ◆ −28.9 in a day 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-20 09-28 10-06 10-10 $44 $35 Over 30 days, price has risen 6.19% while the tape has firmed 10.1 points. They agree.
25% hit rate · 700 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$41.34 → $41.34
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$43.69 → $43.69
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$44.13 → $44.13
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$41.92 → $41.92
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $50 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SMCI
Why did the score drop from +52 to +48 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +52.1 on 2 Oct, then fell to +44.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $41.92 to $43.69. It’s at +48.2 now.+41.6 from volume and +6.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 10:32 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our SMCI record what it is? What’s the $50 wall?