SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp
$167.60 · +4.38% vs $160.57 close · scored 14:48 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 91/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 91/100
For the read
signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Neutral, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−5.3 composite┆ −5.4 yesterday (+0.2) −6.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
91 / 100 · top 1% today
726,735 contracts · quality 98 · stability 0.93
neutral · +1.15% · n=1,055
What traded today · weight 62%
−3.0 pts
345,933 calls · 47.6% 380,802 puts
bias −4.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−2.3 pts
539,942 call OI · 47.0% 608,661 put OI
bias −6.0 × 0.38
Equals
−5.3
57% of the score comes from today’s volume, 43% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +5.00% · tape −17.4 · corr -0.59
● peak +29 ◆ −13.9 in a day ▼ low −5.7 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $168 $142 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 5.00% while the tape has faded 17.4 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 91 (99th pct) · quality 98 · 726,735 contracts
pass Stable 0.93 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · high liquidity → +1.15% avg, n=1,055
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led SPCX’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.30, n=50)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on SPCX is poor 24% hit rate on 676 closed calls · payoff 1.56×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $167.60 highlighted. The $160 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 73,343). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on SPCX Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$167.60 → $167.60
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$164.89 → $167.60
+1.64% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$160.57 → $167.60
+4.38% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$160.57 → $167.60
+4.38% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 397 of these 676 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — · fwd 121.56 Beta 4.934
52w $104.83–$225.64 IV rank —
Ask about SPCX answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +15 to −5 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +15.3 on 1 Oct, then fell to +1.4 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $151.28 to $148.07. It’s at −5.3 now.−3.0 from volume and −2.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 14:48 method · 62/38
Compare with T Why is our SPCX record what it is? What’s the $160 wall?
What our data projects
+0.24 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#148 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $160 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp · Telecommunication
Neutral, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−5.3 ┆ −5.4 yday evidence
neutral · +1.15% · n=1,055
Why it’s −5
−3.0 volume · 48% calls−2.3 OI · 47% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −13.9 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $168 $142 Price +5.00%, tape −17.4 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 91 (99th pct) · quality 98 · 726,735 contracts
pass Stable 0.93 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · high liquidity → +1.15% avg, n=1,055
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led SPCX’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.30, n=50)
What traded today · 62%
−3.0 pts
345,933 calls · 380,802 puts · bias −4.8
What’s on the books · 38%
−2.3 pts
539,942 call OI · 608,661 put OI · bias −6.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +5.00% · tape −17.4 · corr -0.59
● peak +29 ◆ −13.9 in a day ▼ low −5.7 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $168 $142 Over 30 days, price has risen 5.00% while the tape has faded 17.4 points. The two are drifting apart.
24% hit rate · 676 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$167.60 → $167.60
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$164.89 → $167.60
+1.64% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$160.57 → $167.60
+4.38% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$160.57 → $167.60
+4.38% miss
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $160 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SPCX
Why did the score drop from +15 to −5 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +15.3 on 1 Oct, then fell to +1.4 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $151.28 to $148.07. It’s at −5.3 now.−3.0 from volume and −2.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 14:48 method · 62/38
Compare with T Why is our SPCX record what it is? What’s the $160 wall?