TMUS T-Mobile US Inc
$167.65 · +0.00% vs $167.65 close · scored 03:03 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 70/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 18.0 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 70/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , but price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+50.0 composite┆ +32.1 yesterday (+18.0) +19.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
70 / 100 · top 14% today
3,790 contracts · quality 85 · stability 0.77
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+34.1 pts
2,937 calls · 77.5% 853 puts
bias +55.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+15.9 pts
26,710 call OI · 70.9% 10,948 put OI
bias +41.9 × 0.38
Equals
+50.0
68% of the score comes from today’s volume, 32% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −7.64% · tape +51.1 · corr -0.38
◆ +70.6 in a day ▼ low −37.9 ● peak +72 08-18 08-26 09-03 09-11 09-19 09-27 10-05 10-08 $188 $162 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.64% while the tape has firmed 51.1 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 70 (86th pct) · quality 85 · 3,790 contracts
note Jumpy 0.77 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=50)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on TMUS is poor 6% hit rate on 1304 closed calls · payoff 0.42×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $167.65 highlighted. The $195 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 11,120). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on TMUS Proof 8 Oct · 4h
$167.65 → $167.65
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$163.64 → $163.64
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$163.25 → $163.25
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$161.73 → $161.73
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1056 of these 1304 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 16.62 · fwd 12.41 Beta 0.389
52w $160.81–$233.26 IV rank —
Ask about TMUS answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +59 to +50 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +59.2 on 30 Sep, then fell to +31.0 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $165.98 to $162.93. It’s at +50.0 now.+34.1 from volume and +15.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 03:03 method · 62/38
Compare with T Why is our TMUS record what it is? What’s the $195 wall?
What our data projects
−0.02 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#283 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $195 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
T-Mobile US Inc · Telecommunication
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . Price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+50.0 ┆ +32.1 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +50
+34.1 volume · 77% calls+15.9 OI · 71% calls
51 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +70.6 08-18 08-26 09-03 09-11 09-19 09-27 10-05 10-08 $188 $162 Price −7.64%, tape +51.1 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 70 (86th pct) · quality 85 · 3,790 contracts
note Jumpy 0.77 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=50)
What traded today · 62%
+34.1 pts
2,937 calls · 853 puts · bias +55.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+15.9 pts
26,710 call OI · 10,948 put OI · bias +41.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −7.64% · tape +51.1 · corr -0.38
◆ +70.6 in a day ▼ low −37.9 ● peak +72 08-18 08-26 09-03 09-11 09-19 09-27 10-05 10-08 $188 $162 Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.64% while the tape has firmed 51.1 points. The two are drifting apart.
6% hit rate · 1304 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$167.65 → $167.65
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$163.64 → $163.64
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$163.25 → $163.25
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$161.73 → $161.73
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $195 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about TMUS
Why did the score drop from +59 to +50 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +59.2 on 30 Sep, then fell to +31.0 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $165.98 to $162.93. It’s at +50.0 now.+34.1 from volume and +15.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 03:03 method · 62/38
Compare with T Why is our TMUS record what it is? What’s the $195 wall?