UNP Union Pacific Corp
$278.34 · +0.02% vs $278.28 close · scored 05:43 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 66/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 14.9 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 66/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+61.1 composite┆ +46.2 yesterday (+14.9) +14.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
66 / 100 · top 22% today
545 contracts · quality 83 · stability 0.78
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+34.7 pts
425 calls · 78.0% 120 puts
bias +56.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+26.4 pts
19,821 call OI · 84.7% 3,581 put OI
bias +69.4 × 0.38
Equals
+61.1
57% of the score comes from today’s volume, 43% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.89% · tape −0.3 · corr 0.06
▼ low −1.9 ● peak +88 ◆ +55.5 in a day 09-24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-10 $284 $270 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.89% while the tape has barely moved (−0.3). They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 83 · 545 contracts
note Jumpy 0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
pass Tape has led price tape has led UNP’s price by 3 days (r=-0.29, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on UNP is poor 5% hit rate on 623 closed calls · payoff 0.66×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $278.34 highlighted. The $295 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 7,331). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
10 Oct · 4h
$278.34 → $278.34
+0.00% flat
6 Oct · 4h
$276.61 → $276.61
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$278.28 → $278.28
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$273.87 → $273.87
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 136 of these 623 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 22.55 · fwd 19.79 Beta 0.874
52w $215.53–$315.99 IV rank —
Ask about UNP answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +32 to +61 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +32.3 on 30 Sep, then rose to +87.8 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $284.40 to $270.35. It’s at +61.1 now.+34.7 from volume and +26.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 05:43 method · 62/38
Compare with HTZ Why is our UNP record what it is? What’s the $295 wall?
What our data projects
−0.44 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#545 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $295 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Union Pacific Corp · Road & Rail
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+61.1 ┆ +46.2 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +61
+34.7 volume · 78% calls+26.4 OI · 85% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +55.5 09-24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-10 $284 $270 Price −3.89%, tape −0.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 83 · 545 contracts
note Jumpy 0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+34.7 pts
425 calls · 120 puts · bias +56.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+26.4 pts
19,821 call OI · 3,581 put OI · bias +69.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.89% · tape −0.3 · corr 0.06
▼ low −1.9 ● peak +88 ◆ +55.5 in a day 09-24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-10 $284 $270 Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.89% while the tape has barely moved (−0.3). They agree.
5% hit rate · 623 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$278.34 → $278.34
+0.00% flat
6 Oct · 4h
$276.61 → $276.61
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$278.28 → $278.28
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$273.87 → $273.87
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $295 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about UNP
Why did the score rise from +32 to +61 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +32.3 on 30 Sep, then rose to +87.8 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $284.40 to $270.35. It’s at +61.1 now.+34.7 from volume and +26.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 05:43 method · 62/38
Compare with HTZ Why is our UNP record what it is? What’s the $295 wall?