VIK Viking Holdings Ltd(Pembroke)
$81.78 · +1.51% vs $80.56 close · scored 13:33 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 52/100
What changed
Composite weakened 76.5 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 52/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−13.2 composite┆ +63.3 yesterday (−76.5) −76.3 vs a week ago
Evidence
52 / 100 · top 58% today
1,027 contracts · quality 84 · stability 0.76
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
What traded today · weight 62%
−18.7 pts
359 calls · 35.0% 668 puts
bias −30.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+5.4 pts
22,891 call OI · 57.1% 17,167 put OI
bias +14.3 × 0.38
Equals
−13.2
77% of the score comes from today’s volume, 23% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.94% · tape −41.5 · corr -0.32
● peak +79 ▼ low −13.2 ◆ −76.5 in a day 09-24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-07 $85 $78 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.94% while the tape has faded 41.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 52 (42th pct) · quality 84 · 1,027 contracts
note Jumpy 0.76 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=48)
against Our record on VIK is poor 15% hit rate on 558 closed calls · payoff 0.38×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $81.78 highlighted. The $85 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 5,941). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
7 Oct · 4h
$81.78 → $81.78
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$79.93 → $79.93
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$78.50 → $78.50
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$78.20 → $78.20
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 325 of these 558 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 26.68 · fwd 24.82 Beta 1.091
52w $56.37–$110.09 IV rank —
Ask about VIK answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +63 to −13 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +63.3 on 6 Oct, then fell to −13.2 on 7 Oct as the price moved from $80.56 to $80.56. It’s at −13.2 now.−18.7 from volume and +5.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 49 pts stock_scores · 13:33 method · 62/38
Compare with MCD Why is our VIK record what it is? What’s the $85 wall?
What our data projects
−0.37 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#522 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $85 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Viking Holdings Ltd(Pembroke) · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−13.2 ┆ +63.3 yday evidence
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
Why it’s −13
−18.7 volume · 35% calls+5.4 OI · 57% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −76.5 09-24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-07 $85 $78 Price −5.94%, tape −41.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 52 (42th pct) · quality 84 · 1,027 contracts
note Jumpy 0.76 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=48)
What traded today · 62%
−18.7 pts
359 calls · 668 puts · bias −30.1
What’s on the books · 38%
+5.4 pts
22,891 call OI · 17,167 put OI · bias +14.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.94% · tape −41.5 · corr -0.32
● peak +79 ▼ low −13.2 ◆ −76.5 in a day 09-24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-07 $85 $78 Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.94% while the tape has faded 41.5 points. They agree.
15% hit rate · 558 closed
7 Oct · 4h
$81.78 → $81.78
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$79.93 → $79.93
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$78.50 → $78.50
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$78.20 → $78.20
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $85 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about VIK
Why did the score drop from +63 to −13 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +63.3 on 6 Oct, then fell to −13.2 on 7 Oct as the price moved from $80.56 to $80.56. It’s at −13.2 now.−18.7 from volume and +5.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 49 pts stock_scores · 13:33 method · 62/38
Compare with MCD Why is our VIK record what it is? What’s the $85 wall?