VLO Valero Energy Corp
$444.89 · +0.25% vs $443.80 close · scored 15:45 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 60/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 60/100
For the read
No strong confirming evidence isolated.
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−7.1 composite+24.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
60 / 100 · top 38% today
6,163 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.00
neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671
What traded today · weight 62%
+2.0 pts
3,181 calls · 51.6% 2,982 puts
bias +3.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−9.1 pts
19,800 call OI · 38.1% 32,199 put OI
bias −23.8 × 0.38
Equals
−7.1
18% of the score comes from today’s volume, 82% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +15.92% · tape +7.6 · corr 0.35
● peak +23 ▼ low −51.7 ◆ +31.8 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $444 $340 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 15.92% while the tape has firmed 7.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 60 (62th pct) · quality 79 · 6,163 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led VLO’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.21, n=44)
against Our record on VLO is poor 8% hit rate on 724 closed calls · payoff 0.60×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $444.89 highlighted. The $300 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 6,018). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$444.89 → $444.89
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$443.80 → $444.89
+0.25% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$443.80 → $444.89
+0.25% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$443.80 → $444.89
+0.25% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 569 of these 724 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 16.10 · fwd 10.02 Beta 0.558
52w $155.29–$419.04 IV rank —
Ask about VLO answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −32 to −7 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −22.1 on 6 Oct, then rose to +9.7 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $406.30 to $406.30. It’s at −7.1 now.+2.0 from volume and −9.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:45 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our VLO record what it is? What’s the $300 wall?
What our data projects
−0.18 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#387 of 635 · helped by tape composite, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $300 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Valero Energy Corp · Energy
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−7.1 evidence
neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671
Why it’s −7
+2.0 volume · 52% calls−9.1 OI · 38% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +31.8 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $444 $340 Price +15.92%, tape +7.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 60 (62th pct) · quality 79 · 6,163 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led VLO’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.21, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+2.0 pts
3,181 calls · 2,982 puts · bias +3.2
What’s on the books · 38%
−9.1 pts
19,800 call OI · 32,199 put OI · bias −23.8
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +15.92% · tape +7.6 · corr 0.35
● peak +23 ▼ low −51.7 ◆ +31.8 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $444 $340 Over 30 days, price has risen 15.92% while the tape has firmed 7.6 points. They agree.
8% hit rate · 724 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$444.89 → $444.89
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$443.80 → $444.89
+0.25% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$443.80 → $444.89
+0.25% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$443.80 → $444.89
+0.25% hit
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $300 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about VLO
Why did the score rise from −32 to −7 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −22.1 on 6 Oct, then rose to +9.7 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $406.30 to $406.30. It’s at −7.1 now.+2.0 from volume and −9.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:45 method · 62/38
Compare with OXY Why is our VLO record what it is? What’s the $300 wall?