AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc
$41.97 · −1.01% vs $42.40 close · scored 15:43 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 63/100
What changed
Composite weakened 5.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 63/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+43.9 composite┆ +49.0 yesterday (−5.1) −14.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
63 / 100 · top 30% today
2,282 contracts · quality 83 · stability 0.75
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+38.9 pts
1,857 calls · 81.4% 425 puts
bias +62.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+5.0 pts
7,061 call OI · 56.6% 5,425 put OI
bias +13.1 × 0.38
Equals
+43.9
89% of the score comes from today’s volume, 11% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −0.38% · tape −11.6 · corr 0.32
● peak +80 ◆ −88.1 in a day ▼ low −22.1 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-07 10-09 $57 $39 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.38% while the tape has faded 11.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 63 (70th pct) · quality 83 · 2,282 contracts
note Jumpy 0.75 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 37
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AAP’s tape by 1 day (r=0.27, n=50)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
note Our record on AAP is mixed 38% hit rate on 725 closed calls · payoff 1.29×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $41.97 highlighted. The $45 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,868). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$41.97 → $41.97
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$42.40 → $41.97
−1.01% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$38.68 → $41.97
+8.51% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$42.40 → $41.97
−1.01% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 312 of these 725 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report 20 Aug BMO
P/E 27.81 · fwd 11.69 Beta 1.073
52w $37.89–$65.20 IV rank —
Ask about AAP answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +58 to +44 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +58.5 on 3 Oct, then fell to +14.1 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $38.81 to $38.81. It’s at +43.9 now.+38.9 from volume and +5.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with BABA Why is our AAP record what it is? What’s the $45 wall?
What our data projects
+0.26 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#136 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, last day's move, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $45 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Advance Auto Parts Inc · Retail
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+43.9 ┆ +49.0 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +44
+38.9 volume · 81% calls+5.0 OI · 57% calls
51 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −88.1 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-07 10-09 $57 $39 Price −0.38%, tape −11.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 63 (70th pct) · quality 83 · 2,282 contracts
note Jumpy 0.75 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 37
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AAP’s tape by 1 day (r=0.27, n=50)
What traded today · 62%
+38.9 pts
1,857 calls · 425 puts · bias +62.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+5.0 pts
7,061 call OI · 5,425 put OI · bias +13.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −0.38% · tape −11.6 · corr 0.32
● peak +80 ◆ −88.1 in a day ▼ low −22.1 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-07 10-09 $57 $39 Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.38% while the tape has faded 11.6 points. They agree.
38% hit rate · 725 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$41.97 → $41.97
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$42.40 → $41.97
−1.01% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$38.68 → $41.97
+8.51% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$42.40 → $41.97
−1.01% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $45 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AAP
Why did the score drop from +58 to +44 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +58.5 on 3 Oct, then fell to +14.1 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $38.81 to $38.81. It’s at +43.9 now.+38.9 from volume and +5.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with BABA Why is our AAP record what it is? What’s the $45 wall?