CL

Colgate-Palmolive Co

$88.12 · +4.58% vs $84.26 close · scored 21:01 · stale

Decision brief

BULLISH · 64/100

What changed

Composite weakened 10.1 points.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 64/100

For the read

options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable

Against / uncertainty

No material contradiction isolated.

The read

Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced, and the tape has led price here.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

+19.6 composite┆ +29.7 yesterday (−10.1)−20.1 vs a week ago

Evidence

64 / 100 · top 28% today

416 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.78

hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499

Why it’s +20

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

+11.3 pts

246 calls · 59.1%170 puts

bias +18.3 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

+8.3 pts

4,942 call OI · 60.9%3,174 put OI

bias +21.8 × 0.38

Equals

+19.6

58% of the score comes from today’s volume, 42% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 44 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −5.08% · tape +1.5 · corr -0.05

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.08% while the tape has barely moved (+1.5). The two are drifting apart.

Should you trust it?

note

Some evidence, not a lot

confidence 64 (72th pct) · quality 82 · 416 contracts

note

Jumpy

0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0

against

This kind of read hasn’t paid

mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499

pass

Tape has led price

tape has led CL’s price by 2 days (r=-0.49, n=43)

note

Stretched vs its own history

today’s tape sits low relative to price

against

Our record on CL is poor

11% hit rate on 359 closed calls · payoff 0.58×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$96

$95

$94

$93

$92.5

$92

$91

$90

WALL · OI 1,635

$89

$88

$87.5

$87

$86

$85

$84

$83

$82.5

$82

$81

Spot $88.12 highlighted. The $90 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,635). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on CL

Proof

11%

hit rate · 359 closed

0.58×

payoff

−0.45%

avg return

8 Oct · 4h

$88.12 → $88.12

+0.00%flat

3 Oct · 4h

$84.26 → $84.26

+0.00%flat

2 Oct · 4h

$84.87 → $84.87

+0.00%flat

2 Oct · 4h

$84.53 → $84.53

+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 152 of these 359 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

−0.55%Q3 ’25

+1.12%Q4 ’25

−0.35%Q1 ’26

+1.51%Q2 ’26

Street Buy-leaningNext report — P/E 36.49 · fwd 23.24Beta 0.320 52w $74.55–$99.33IV rank —