COP

ConocoPhillips

$134.19 · +0.00% vs $134.19 close · scored 12:19 · stale

Decision brief

NEUTRAL · 67/100

What changed

Composite strengthened 42.2 points.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 67/100

For the read

signal has been stable

Against / uncertainty

open interest leans against the read

The read

Neutral, moderately evidenced, and the tape has led price here.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

+5.4 composite┆ −36.8 yesterday (+42.2)+8.9 vs a week ago

Evidence

67 / 100 · top 19% today

6,143 contracts · quality 88 · stability 0.82

neutral · −0.53% · n=4,464

Why it’s +5

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

−3.6 pts

2,894 calls · 47.1%3,249 puts

bias −5.8 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

+9.0 pts

29,263 call OI · 61.8%18,079 put OI

bias +23.6 × 0.38

Equals

+5.4

29% of the score comes from today’s volume, 71% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 52 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −0.63% · tape +36.6 · corr 0.38

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.63% while the tape has firmed 36.6 points. The two are drifting apart.

Should you trust it?

note

Some evidence, not a lot

confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 88 · 6,143 contracts

pass

Stable

0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 55

note

Neutral reads make no call

neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.53% avg, n=4,464

pass

Tape has led price

tape has led COP’s price by 1 day (r=0.16, n=51)

against

Our record on COP is poor

12% hit rate on 1471 closed calls · payoff 1.11×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$143

$142

$141

$140

$139

$138

$137

$136

$135

$134

$133

$132

$131

$130

$129

$128

$127

$126

$125

Spot $134.19 highlighted. The $120 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 6,962). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on COP

Proof

12%

hit rate · 1471 closed

1.11×

payoff

+0.00%

avg return

9 Oct · 4h

$134.19 → $134.19

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$134.19 → $134.19

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$134.19 → $134.19

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$134.19 → $134.19

+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1111 of these 1471 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

+11.45%Q3 ’25

−9.14%Q4 ’25

+13.23%Q1 ’26

+11.29%Q2 ’26

Street Buy-leaningNext report — P/E 16.61 · fwd 13.12Beta 0.217 52w $85.57–$141.62IV rank —