COST Costco Wholesale Corp
$947.92 · +0.00% vs $947.92 close · scored 14:42 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 81/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 81/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.6 composite┆ +19.6 yesterday (+0.0) +10.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
81 / 100 · top 4% today
23,932 contracts · quality 92 · stability 0.91
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
What traded today · weight 62%
+16.7 pts
15,193 calls · 63.5% 8,739 puts
bias +27.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+2.8 pts
48,460 call OI · 53.7% 41,709 put OI
bias +7.5 × 0.38
Equals
+19.6
85% of the score comes from today’s volume, 15% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +4.15% · tape +18.3 · corr 0.69
● peak +27 ▼ low −10.9 ◆ +18.4 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $960 $895 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 4.15% while the tape has firmed 18.3 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 81 (96th pct) · quality 92 · 23,932 contracts
pass Stable 0.91 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led COST’s tape by 2 days (r=0.29, n=44)
note Our record on COST is mixed 38% hit rate on 1615 closed calls · payoff 0.94×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $947.92 highlighted. The $950 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,147). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on COST Proof 38%
hit rate · 1615 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$947.92 → $947.92
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$947.92 → $947.92
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$947.92 → $947.92
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$947.92 → $947.92
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 358 of these 1615 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 45.24 · fwd 39.72 Beta 0.881
52w $844.06–$1,096.50 IV rank —
Ask about COST answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +9 to +20 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +12.2 on 7 Oct, then rose to +20.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $935.68 to $942.25. It’s at +19.6 now.+16.7 from volume and +2.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with BABA Why is our COST record what it is? What’s the $950 wall?
What our data projects
−0.25 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#448 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $950 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Costco Wholesale Corp · Retail
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.6 ┆ +19.6 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
Why it’s +20
+16.7 volume · 63% calls+2.8 OI · 54% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +18.4 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $960 $895 Price +4.15%, tape +18.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 81 (96th pct) · quality 92 · 23,932 contracts
pass Stable 0.91 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led COST’s tape by 2 days (r=0.29, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+16.7 pts
15,193 calls · 8,739 puts · bias +27.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+2.8 pts
48,460 call OI · 41,709 put OI · bias +7.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +4.15% · tape +18.3 · corr 0.69
● peak +27 ▼ low −10.9 ◆ +18.4 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $960 $895 Over 30 days, price has risen 4.15% while the tape has firmed 18.3 points. They agree.
38% hit rate · 1615 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$947.92 → $947.92
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$947.92 → $947.92
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$947.92 → $947.92
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$947.92 → $947.92
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $950 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about COST
Why did the score rise from +9 to +20 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +12.2 on 7 Oct, then rose to +20.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $935.68 to $942.25. It’s at +19.6 now.+16.7 from volume and +2.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with BABA Why is our COST record what it is? What’s the $950 wall?