CVNA Carvana Co
$63.86 · +0.07% vs $63.81 close · scored 19:43 · fresh
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 72/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 72/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+11.0 composite┆ +10.8 yesterday (+0.2) +0.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
72 / 100 · top 12% today
5,265 contracts · quality 91 · stability 0.91
hasn’t paid −0.76% · n=9,666
What traded today · weight 62%
+14.7 pts
3,257 calls · 61.9% 2,008 puts
bias +23.7 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−3.7 pts
71,521 call OI · 45.1% 87,010 put OI
bias −9.8 × 0.38
Equals
+11.0
80% of the score comes from today’s volume, 20% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −14.39% · tape −23.0 · corr -0.04
● peak +47 ◆ +52.7 in a day ▼ low −21.9 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-10 $76 $61 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 14.39% while the tape has faded 23.0 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 72 (88th pct) · quality 91 · 5,265 contracts
pass Stable 0.91 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.76% avg, n=9,666
pass Tape has led price tape has led CVNA’s price by 3 days (r=0.26, n=42)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
note Our record on CVNA is mixed 40% hit rate on 371 closed calls · payoff 2.06×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $63.86 highlighted. The $60 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 18,705). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on CVNA Proof 6 Oct · 4h
$63.86 → $63.86
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$63.77 → $63.77
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$65.14 → $65.14
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$63.04 → $63.04
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 149 of these 371 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 44.76 · fwd 39.47 Beta 3.665
52w $54.46–$97.38 IV rank —
Ask about CVNA answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −22 to +11 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −21.9 on 30 Sep, then rose to +16.6 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $63.62 to $62.54. It’s at +11.0 now.+14.7 from volume and −3.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 19:43 method · 62/38
Compare with BABA Why is our CVNA record what it is? What’s the $60 wall?
What our data projects
+0.85 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#17 of 635 · helped by quality, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $60 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Carvana Co · Retail
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+11.0 ┆ +10.8 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.76% · n=9,666
Why it’s +11
+14.7 volume · 62% calls−3.7 OI · 45% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +52.7 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-10 $76 $61 Price −14.39%, tape −23.0 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 72 (88th pct) · quality 91 · 5,265 contracts
pass Stable 0.91 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.76% avg, n=9,666
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+14.7 pts
3,257 calls · 2,008 puts · bias +23.7
What’s on the books · 38%
−3.7 pts
71,521 call OI · 87,010 put OI · bias −9.8
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −14.39% · tape −23.0 · corr -0.04
● peak +47 ◆ +52.7 in a day ▼ low −21.9 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-10 $76 $61 Over 30 days, price has fallen 14.39% while the tape has faded 23.0 points. They agree.
40% hit rate · 371 closed
6 Oct · 4h
$63.86 → $63.86
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$63.77 → $63.77
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$65.14 → $65.14
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$63.04 → $63.04
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $60 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about CVNA
Why did the score rise from −22 to +11 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −21.9 on 30 Sep, then rose to +16.6 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $63.62 to $62.54. It’s at +11.0 now.+14.7 from volume and −3.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 19:43 method · 62/38
Compare with BABA Why is our CVNA record what it is? What’s the $60 wall?