DPZ

Domino's Pizza Inc

$307.87 · −0.25% vs $308.65 close · scored 15:46 · stale

Decision brief

BULLISH · 55/100

What changed

Composite strengthened 23.2 points.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 55/100

For the read

options volume favours calls · signal has been stable

Against / uncertainty

No material contradiction isolated.

The read

Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced, but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

+31.2 composite┆ +8.1 yesterday (+23.2)−5.1 vs a week ago

Evidence

55 / 100 · top 47% today

1,384 contracts · quality 84 · stability 0.79

hasn’t paid −0.04% · n=83,764

Why it’s +31

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

+28.7 pts

1,012 calls · 73.1%372 puts

bias +46.2 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

+2.6 pts

7,400 call OI · 53.4%6,468 put OI

bias +6.7 × 0.38

Equals

+31.2

92% of the score comes from today’s volume, 8% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 45 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −7.98% · tape +18.8 · corr -0.23

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.98% while the tape has firmed 18.8 points. The two are drifting apart.

Should you trust it?

note

Some evidence, not a lot

confidence 55 (53th pct) · quality 84 · 1,384 contracts

note

Jumpy

0.79 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 75

against

This kind of read hasn’t paid

strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.04% avg, n=83,764

note

Tape is confirming, not predicting

price has led DPZ’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.22, n=44)

note

Stretched vs its own history

today’s tape sits high relative to price

against

Our record on DPZ is poor

17% hit rate on 407 closed calls · payoff 1.14×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$400

$390

$380

$370

$360

$350

$340

$330

$320

$310

$300

WALL · OI 1,034

$290

$280

$270

$260

$250

$240

$230

$220

Spot $307.87 highlighted. The $300 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,034). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on DPZ

Proof

17%

hit rate · 407 closed

1.14×

payoff

−0.18%

avg return

9 Oct · 4h

$307.87 → $307.87

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$308.65 → $307.87

−0.25%miss

9 Oct · 4h

$308.65 → $307.87

−0.25%miss

9 Oct · 4h

$308.65 → $307.87

−0.25%miss

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 175 of these 407 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

+1.73%Q3 ’25

−1.44%Q4 ’25

−8.13%Q1 ’26

−3.44%Q2 ’26

Street MixedNext report — P/E 16.66 · fwd 14.60Beta 0.986 52w $282.00–$442.35IV rank —