ECL Ecolab Inc
$281.83 · +2.97% vs $273.70 close · scored 09:27 · fresh
Decision brief
BEARISH · 54/100
What changed
Composite weakened 45.3 points.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 54/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−24.2 composite┆ +21.1 yesterday (−45.3) −38.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
54 / 100 · top 52% today
1,344 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.70
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
What traded today · weight 62%
−40.1 pts
237 calls · 17.6% 1,107 puts
bias −64.7 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+15.9 pts
12,044 call OI · 71.0% 4,931 put OI
bias +41.9 × 0.38
Equals
−24.2
72% of the score comes from today’s volume, 28% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +3.53% · tape −81.6 · corr -0.20
▼ low −76.2 ◆ −94.4 in a day ● peak +71 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $287 $269 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 3.53% while the tape has faded 81.6 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (48th pct) · quality 82 · 1,344 contracts
note Jumpy 0.70 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
pass Tape has led price tape has led ECL’s price by 2 days (r=-0.39, n=52)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on ECL is poor 12% hit rate on 1415 closed calls · payoff 0.49×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $281.83 highlighted. The $300 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 4,524). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
12%
hit rate · 1415 closed
4 Oct · 4h
$273.70 → $273.70
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$273.70 → $273.70
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$272.37 → $272.37
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$271.26 → $271.26
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 844 of these 1415 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 36.63 · fwd 30.58 Beta 0.881
52w $243.15–$309.27 IV rank —
Ask about ECL answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +14 to −24 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +21.1 on 9 Oct, then fell to −24.2 on 10 Oct as the price moved from $273.70 to $281.83. It’s at −24.2 now.−40.1 from volume and +15.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 53 pts stock_scores · 09:27 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our ECL record what it is? What’s the $300 wall?
What our data projects
−0.18 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#386 of 635. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $300 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Ecolab Inc · Chemicals
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−24.2 ┆ +21.1 yday evidence
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
Why it’s −24
−40.1 volume · 18% calls+15.9 OI · 71% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −94.4 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $287 $269 Price +3.53%, tape −81.6 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (48th pct) · quality 82 · 1,344 contracts
note Jumpy 0.70 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−40.1 pts
237 calls · 1,107 puts · bias −64.7
What’s on the books · 38%
+15.9 pts
12,044 call OI · 4,931 put OI · bias +41.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +3.53% · tape −81.6 · corr -0.20
▼ low −76.2 ◆ −94.4 in a day ● peak +71 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $287 $269 Over 30 days, price has risen 3.53% while the tape has faded 81.6 points. The two are drifting apart.
12% hit rate · 1415 closed
4 Oct · 4h
$273.70 → $273.70
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$273.70 → $273.70
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$272.37 → $272.37
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$271.26 → $271.26
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $300 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ECL
Why did the score drop from +14 to −24 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +21.1 on 9 Oct, then fell to −24.2 on 10 Oct as the price moved from $273.70 to $281.83. It’s at −24.2 now.−40.1 from volume and +15.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 53 pts stock_scores · 09:27 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our ECL record what it is? What’s the $300 wall?