EL Estee Lauder Companies Inc
$93.81 · +2.00% vs $91.97 close · scored 18:17 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 59/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 5.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 59/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+25.9 composite┆ +20.8 yesterday (+5.1) −5.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
59 / 100 · top 40% today
329 contracts · quality 83 · stability 0.78
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+18.3 pts
213 calls · 64.7% 116 puts
bias +29.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+7.6 pts
11,427 call OI · 60.0% 7,616 put OI
bias +20.0 × 0.38
Equals
+25.9
71% of the score comes from today’s volume, 29% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −6.99% · tape +9.9 · corr -0.38
▼ low −1.1 ● peak +52 ◆ +53.0 in a day 09-24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-10 $99 $90 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.99% while the tape has firmed 9.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (60th pct) · quality 83 · 329 contracts
note Jumpy 0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
pass Tape has led price tape has led EL’s price by 1 day (r=0.24, n=42)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
note Our record on EL is mixed 39% hit rate on 595 closed calls · payoff 1.07×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $93.81 highlighted. The $100 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,849). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
6 Oct · 4h
$93.81 → $93.81
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$91.97 → $91.97
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$91.98 → $91.98
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$91.92 → $91.92
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 195 of these 595 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 186.31 · fwd 28.81 Beta 1.259
52w $66.22–$121.64 IV rank —
Ask about EL answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +25.9?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 2.7 points of +25.9 across the last 8 sessions.+18.3 from volume and +7.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 18:17 method · 62/38
Compare with GPRO Why is our EL record what it is? What’s the $100 wall?
What our data projects
−0.06 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#308 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $100 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Estee Lauder Companies Inc · Consumer products
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+25.9 ┆ +20.8 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +26
+18.3 volume · 65% calls+7.6 OI · 60% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +53.0 09-24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-10 $99 $90 Price −6.99%, tape +9.9 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (60th pct) · quality 83 · 329 contracts
note Jumpy 0.78 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+18.3 pts
213 calls · 116 puts · bias +29.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+7.6 pts
11,427 call OI · 7,616 put OI · bias +20.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −6.99% · tape +9.9 · corr -0.38
▼ low −1.1 ● peak +52 ◆ +53.0 in a day 09-24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-10 $99 $90 Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.99% while the tape has firmed 9.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
39% hit rate · 595 closed
6 Oct · 4h
$93.81 → $93.81
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$91.97 → $91.97
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$91.98 → $91.98
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$91.92 → $91.92
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $100 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about EL
What is behind today’s +25.9?
The composite has held within 2.7 points of +25.9 across the last 8 sessions.+18.3 from volume and +7.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 18:17 method · 62/38
Compare with GPRO Why is our EL record what it is? What’s the $100 wall?