EXC Exelon Corp
$41.73 · +0.00% vs $41.73 close · scored 14:42 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 59/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 59/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+32.2 composite┆ +32.2 yesterday (+0.0) +13.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
59 / 100 · top 40% today
702 contracts · quality 85 · stability 0.83
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+18.4 pts
455 calls · 64.8% 247 puts
bias +29.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+13.8 pts
12,164 call OI · 68.1% 5,687 put OI
bias +36.3 × 0.38
Equals
+32.2
57% of the score comes from today’s volume, 43% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.05% · tape −24.6 · corr -0.17
◆ −59.1 in a day ▼ low +1.3 ● peak +63 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $44 $40 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.05% while the tape has faded 24.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (60th pct) · quality 85 · 702 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led EXC’s tape by 1 day (r=0.28, n=44)
against Our record on EXC is poor 25% hit rate on 407 closed calls · payoff 0.97×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $41.73 highlighted. The $43 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 5,601).
9 Oct · 4h
$41.73 → $41.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$41.73 → $41.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$41.73 → $41.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$41.73 → $41.73
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 169 of these 407 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 15.31 · fwd 13.98 Beta 0.262
52w $39.73–$50.65 IV rank —
Ask about EXC answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +13 to +32 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +18.4 on 2 Oct, then rose to +62.6 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $40.50 to $40.70. It’s at +32.2 now.+18.4 from volume and +13.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with D Why is our EXC record what it is? What’s the $43 wall?
What our data projects
−0.22 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#423 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $43 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Exelon Corp · Utilities
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+32.2 ┆ +32.2 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +32
+18.4 volume · 65% calls+13.8 OI · 68% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −59.1 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $44 $40 Price −5.05%, tape −24.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (60th pct) · quality 85 · 702 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led EXC’s tape by 1 day (r=0.28, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+18.4 pts
455 calls · 247 puts · bias +29.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+13.8 pts
12,164 call OI · 5,687 put OI · bias +36.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.05% · tape −24.6 · corr -0.17
◆ −59.1 in a day ▼ low +1.3 ● peak +63 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $44 $40 Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.05% while the tape has faded 24.6 points. They agree.
25% hit rate · 407 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$41.73 → $41.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$41.73 → $41.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$41.73 → $41.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$41.73 → $41.73
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $43 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about EXC
Why did the score rise from +13 to +32 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +18.4 on 2 Oct, then rose to +62.6 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $40.50 to $40.70. It’s at +32.2 now.+18.4 from volume and +13.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with D Why is our EXC record what it is? What’s the $43 wall?