HD Home Depot Inc
$291.18 · −1.40% vs $295.30 close · scored 15:42 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 72/100
What changed
Composite weakened 37.4 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 72/100
For the read
signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+10.4 composite┆ +47.8 yesterday (−37.4) −10.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
72 / 100 · top 11% today
10,788 contracts · quality 88 · stability 0.81
hasn’t paid −1.14% · n=2,152
What traded today · weight 62%
−3.1 pts
5,126 calls · 47.5% 5,662 puts
bias −5.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+13.5 pts
47,008 call OI · 67.7% 22,404 put OI
bias +35.4 × 0.38
Equals
+10.4
19% of the score comes from today’s volume, 81% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.87% · tape −9.9 · corr -0.41
● peak +47 ▼ low +10.4 ◆ −36.4 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $330 $282 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.87% while the tape has faded 9.9 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 72 (89th pct) · quality 88 · 10,788 contracts
pass Stable 0.81 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −1.14% avg, n=2,152
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led HD’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.38, n=44)
against Our record on HD is poor 27% hit rate on 426 closed calls · payoff 0.68×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $291.18 highlighted. The $300 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 5,490). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$291.18 → $291.18
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$295.47 → $291.18
−1.45% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$295.47 → $291.18
−1.45% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$295.47 → $291.18
−1.45% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 172 of these 426 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 19.90 · fwd 19.52 Beta 0.977
52w $277.15–$397.63 IV rank —
Ask about HD answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +21 to +10 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +46.7 on 8 Oct, then fell to +10.4 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $285.77 to $295.30. It’s at +10.4 now.−3.1 from volume and +13.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:42 method · 62/38
Compare with GME Why is our HD record what it is? What’s the $300 wall?
What our data projects
−0.36 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#648 of 780 · helped by quality, confidence, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $300 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Home Depot Inc · Retail
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+10.4 ┆ +47.8 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.14% · n=2,152
Why it’s +10
−3.1 volume · 48% calls+13.5 OI · 68% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −36.4 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $330 $282 Price −5.87%, tape −9.9 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 72 (89th pct) · quality 88 · 10,788 contracts
pass Stable 0.81 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −1.14% avg, n=2,152
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led HD’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.38, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
−3.1 pts
5,126 calls · 5,662 puts · bias −5.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+13.5 pts
47,008 call OI · 22,404 put OI · bias +35.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.87% · tape −9.9 · corr -0.41
● peak +47 ▼ low +10.4 ◆ −36.4 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $330 $282 Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.87% while the tape has faded 9.9 points. They agree.
27% hit rate · 426 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$291.18 → $291.18
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$295.47 → $291.18
−1.45% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$295.47 → $291.18
−1.45% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$295.47 → $291.18
−1.45% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $300 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about HD
Why did the score drop from +21 to +10 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +46.7 on 8 Oct, then fell to +10.4 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $285.77 to $295.30. It’s at +10.4 now.−3.1 from volume and +13.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:42 method · 62/38
Compare with GME Why is our HD record what it is? What’s the $300 wall?