IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc
$84.26 · −0.47% vs $84.65 close · scored 15:48 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 46/100
What changed
Composite weakened 1.0 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 46/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bearish, thinly evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−15.3 composite┆ −14.2 yesterday (−1.0) −58.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
46 / 100 · top 70% today
591 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.66
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
What traded today · weight 62%
−23.8 pts
182 calls · 30.8% 409 puts
bias −38.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+8.5 pts
4,747 call OI · 61.2% 3,005 put OI
bias +22.5 × 0.38
Equals
−15.3
74% of the score comes from today’s volume, 26% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.13% · tape −17.6 · corr 0.26
◆ +92.9 in a day ● peak +66 ▼ low −45.6 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $88 $82 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.13% while the tape has faded 17.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 46 (30th pct) · quality 79 · 591 contracts
note Jumpy 0.66 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led IFF’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.25, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on IFF is poor 25% hit rate on 382 closed calls · payoff 1.18×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $84.26 highlighted. The $87.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,284). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$84.26 → $84.26
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$84.19 → $84.26
+0.08% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$84.65 → $84.26
−0.47% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$84.65 → $84.26
−0.47% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 204 of these 382 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 73.04 · fwd 23.73 Beta 0.905
52w $59.14–$89.32 IV rank —
Ask about IFF answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +41 to −15 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +43.3 on 2 Oct, then fell to −45.6 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $83.12 to $82.42. It’s at −15.3 now.−23.8 from volume and +8.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:48 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our IFF record what it is? What’s the $87.5 wall?
What our data projects
−0.66 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#617 of 635 · helped by tape composite, last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $87.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc · Chemicals
Mildly bearish, thinly evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−15.3 ┆ −14.2 yday evidence
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
Why it’s −15
−23.8 volume · 31% calls+8.5 OI · 61% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +92.9 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $88 $82 Price −1.13%, tape −17.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 46 (30th pct) · quality 79 · 591 contracts
note Jumpy 0.66 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led IFF’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.25, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
−23.8 pts
182 calls · 409 puts · bias −38.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+8.5 pts
4,747 call OI · 3,005 put OI · bias +22.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.13% · tape −17.6 · corr 0.26
◆ +92.9 in a day ● peak +66 ▼ low −45.6 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $88 $82 Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.13% while the tape has faded 17.6 points. They agree.
25% hit rate · 382 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$84.26 → $84.26
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$84.19 → $84.26
+0.08% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$84.65 → $84.26
−0.47% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$84.65 → $84.26
−0.47% hit
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $87.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about IFF
Why did the score drop from +41 to −15 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +43.3 on 2 Oct, then fell to −45.6 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $83.12 to $82.42. It’s at −15.3 now.−23.8 from volume and +8.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:48 method · 62/38
Compare with SHW Why is our IFF record what it is? What’s the $87.5 wall?