MDLZ Mondelez International Inc
$60.67 · +0.00% vs $60.67 close · scored 14:28 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 59/100
What changed
Composite weakened 7.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 59/100
For the read
open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+15.3 composite┆ +22.4 yesterday (−7.1) +5.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
59 / 100 · top 38% today
1,014 contracts · quality 85 · stability 0.81
hasn’t paid −0.22% · n=9,321
What traded today · weight 62%
+2.2 pts
525 calls · 51.8% 489 puts
bias +3.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+13.1 pts
5,256 call OI · 67.3% 2,557 put OI
bias +34.5 × 0.38
Equals
+15.3
14% of the score comes from today’s volume, 86% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.00% · tape −0.5 · corr -0.14
● peak +61 ▼ low −15.0 ◆ −76.2 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $61 $58 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.00% while the tape has barely moved (−0.5). They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (62th pct) · quality 85 · 1,014 contracts
pass Stable 0.81 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → −0.22% avg, n=9,321
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MDLZ’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.47, n=43)
against Our record on MDLZ is poor 17% hit rate on 352 closed calls · payoff 0.41×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $60.67 highlighted. The $60 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,716). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on MDLZ Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$60.67 → $60.67
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$60.67 → $60.67
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$60.67 → $60.67
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$60.67 → $60.67
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 154 of these 352 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 21.05 · fwd 18.66 Beta 0.387
52w $51.20–$66.65 IV rank —
Ask about MDLZ answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +51 to +15 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +51.1 on 1 Oct, then fell to +9.5 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $57.82 to $58.33. It’s at +15.3 now.+2.2 from volume and +13.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 14:28 method · 62/38
Compare with MKC Why is our MDLZ record what it is? What’s the $60 wall?
What our data projects
−0.14 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#441 of 780 · helped by quality, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $60 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Mondelez International Inc · Food Products
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+15.3 ┆ +22.4 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.22% · n=9,321
Why it’s +15
+2.2 volume · 52% calls+13.1 OI · 67% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −76.2 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $61 $58 Price −1.00%, tape −0.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (62th pct) · quality 85 · 1,014 contracts
pass Stable 0.81 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → −0.22% avg, n=9,321
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MDLZ’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.47, n=43)
What traded today · 62%
+2.2 pts
525 calls · 489 puts · bias +3.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+13.1 pts
5,256 call OI · 2,557 put OI · bias +34.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.00% · tape −0.5 · corr -0.14
● peak +61 ▼ low −15.0 ◆ −76.2 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $61 $58 Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.00% while the tape has barely moved (−0.5). They agree.
17% hit rate · 352 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$60.67 → $60.67
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$60.67 → $60.67
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$60.67 → $60.67
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$60.67 → $60.67
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $60 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MDLZ
Why did the score drop from +51 to +15 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +51.1 on 1 Oct, then fell to +9.5 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $57.82 to $58.33. It’s at +15.3 now.+2.2 from volume and +13.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 14:28 method · 62/38
Compare with MKC Why is our MDLZ record what it is? What’s the $60 wall?