MRK Merck & Co Inc
$144.62 · +2.01% vs $141.77 close · scored 15:46 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 76/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 4.7 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 76/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+57.9 composite┆ +53.2 yesterday (+4.7) +1.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
76 / 100 · top 6% today
10,484 contracts · quality 89 · stability 0.85
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
What traded today · weight 62%
+46.5 pts
9,175 calls · 87.5% 1,309 puts
bias +75.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+11.4 pts
65,017 call OI · 64.9% 35,106 put OI
bias +29.9 × 0.38
Equals
+57.9
80% of the score comes from today’s volume, 20% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.51% · tape +37.2 · corr -0.23
● peak +74 ◆ −59.6 in a day ▼ low +6.7 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $152 $142 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.51% while the tape has firmed 37.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (94th pct) · quality 89 · 10,484 contracts
pass Stable 0.85 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MRK’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.23, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on MRK is poor 12% hit rate on 1450 closed calls · payoff 2.57×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $144.62 highlighted. The $165 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 15,152). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
12%
hit rate · 1450 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$144.62 → $144.62
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$142.38 → $144.62
+1.57% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$142.38 → $144.62
+1.57% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$142.38 → $144.62
+1.57% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1100 of these 1450 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 110.68 · fwd 19.63 Beta 0.117
52w $82.01–$156.92 IV rank —
Ask about MRK answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +50 to +58 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +6.7 on 8 Oct, then rose to +57.9 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $142.79 to $141.77. It’s at +57.9 now.+46.5 from volume and +11.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 15:46 method · 62/38
Compare with ALMS Why is our MRK record what it is? What’s the $165 wall?
What our data projects
+0.08 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#224 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $165 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Merck & Co Inc · Pharmaceuticals
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+57.9 ┆ +53.2 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
Why it’s +58
+46.5 volume · 88% calls+11.4 OI · 65% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −59.6 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $152 $142 Price −4.51%, tape +37.2 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (94th pct) · quality 89 · 10,484 contracts
pass Stable 0.85 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MRK’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.23, n=51)
What traded today · 62%
+46.5 pts
9,175 calls · 1,309 puts · bias +75.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+11.4 pts
65,017 call OI · 35,106 put OI · bias +29.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.51% · tape +37.2 · corr -0.23
● peak +74 ◆ −59.6 in a day ▼ low +6.7 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $152 $142 Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.51% while the tape has firmed 37.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
12% hit rate · 1450 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$144.62 → $144.62
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$142.38 → $144.62
+1.57% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$142.38 → $144.62
+1.57% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$142.38 → $144.62
+1.57% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $165 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MRK
Why did the score rise from +50 to +58 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +6.7 on 8 Oct, then rose to +57.9 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $142.79 to $141.77. It’s at +57.9 now.+46.5 from volume and +11.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 15:46 method · 62/38
Compare with ALMS Why is our MRK record what it is? What’s the $165 wall?