MTCH Match Group Inc
$41.96 · +0.00% vs $41.96 close · scored 04:41 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 51/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 51/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−21.4 composite−91.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
51 / 100 · top 60% today
744 contracts · quality 77 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +0.98% · n=6,363
What traded today · weight 62%
−31.3 pts
184 calls · 24.7% 560 puts
bias −50.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+10.0 pts
38,293 call OI · 63.1% 22,399 put OI
bias +26.2 × 0.38
Equals
−21.4
76% of the score comes from today’s volume, 24% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +2.37% · tape −89.7 · corr 0.22
● peak +72 ◆ −53.6 in a day ▼ low −21.4 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $42 $39 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 2.37% while the tape has faded 89.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 51 (40th pct) · quality 77 · 744 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.98% avg, n=6,363
pass Tape has led price tape has led MTCH’s price by 2 days (r=0.31, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on MTCH is poor 34% hit rate on 740 closed calls · payoff 1.12×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $41.96 highlighted. The $45 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 9,774). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on MTCH Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$41.96 → $41.96
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$40.32 → $40.32
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$40.32 → $40.32
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$40.02 → $40.02
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 166 of these 740 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 13.08 · fwd 13.75 Beta 1.471
52w $28.81–$44.94 IV rank —
Ask about MTCH answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +72 to −21 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +70.2 on 2 Oct, then fell to +16.6 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $40.13 to $40.32. It’s at −21.4 now.−31.3 from volume and +10.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 04:41 method · 62/38
Compare with AMC Why is our MTCH record what it is? What’s the $45 wall?
What our data projects
−0.46 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#642 of 724 · helped by tape composite, volatility (20 days), composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $45 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Match Group Inc · Media
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−21.4 evidence
hasn’t paid +0.98% · n=6,363
Why it’s −21
−31.3 volume · 25% calls+10.0 OI · 63% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −53.6 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $42 $39 Price +2.37%, tape −89.7 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 51 (40th pct) · quality 77 · 744 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.98% avg, n=6,363
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−31.3 pts
184 calls · 560 puts · bias −50.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+10.0 pts
38,293 call OI · 22,399 put OI · bias +26.2
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +2.37% · tape −89.7 · corr 0.22
● peak +72 ◆ −53.6 in a day ▼ low −21.4 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $42 $39 Over 30 days, price has risen 2.37% while the tape has faded 89.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
34% hit rate · 740 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$41.96 → $41.96
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$40.32 → $40.32
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$40.32 → $40.32
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$40.02 → $40.02
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $45 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MTCH
Why did the score drop from +72 to −21 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +70.2 on 2 Oct, then fell to +16.6 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $40.13 to $40.32. It’s at −21.4 now.−31.3 from volume and +10.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 04:41 method · 62/38
Compare with AMC Why is our MTCH record what it is? What’s the $45 wall?