MVIS MicroVision Inc
$1.26 · −4.92% vs $1.32 close · scored 15:49 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 35/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 35/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak
The read
Mildly bearish, thinly evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−14.7 composite−57.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
35 / 100 · top 89% today
50 contracts · quality 53 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
What traded today · weight 62%
−22.3 pts
16 calls · 32.0% 34 puts
bias −36.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+7.7 pts
1,968 call OI · 60.1% 1,308 put OI
bias +20.1 × 0.38
Equals
−14.7
74% of the score comes from today’s volume, 26% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −20.96% · tape +22.1 · corr 0.47
▼ low −46.3 ◆ −127.1 in a day ● peak +92 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $2 $1 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 20.96% while the tape has firmed 22.1 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 35 (11th pct) · quality 53 · 50 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MVIS’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.26, n=50)
against Our record on MVIS is poor 20% hit rate on 660 closed calls · payoff 0.64×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $1.26 highlighted. The $1.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,942). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on MVIS Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$1.26 → $1.26
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$1.31 → $1.26
−4.27% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$1.31 → $1.26
−4.20% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$1.31 → $1.26
−4.20% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 313 of these 660 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — Beta 1.316
52w $1.40–$23.10 IV rank —
Ask about MVIS answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +43 to −15 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +42.8 on 6 Oct, then fell to −20.5 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $1.51 to $1.52. It’s at −14.7 now.−22.3 from volume and +7.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 15:49 method · 62/38
Compare with FPS Why is our MVIS record what it is? What’s the $1.5 wall?
What our data projects
+0.39 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#97 of 635 · helped by tape composite, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $1.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
MicroVision Inc · Electrical Equipment
Mildly bearish, thinly evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−14.7 evidence
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
Why it’s −15
−22.3 volume · 32% calls+7.7 OI · 60% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −127.1 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $2 $1 Price −20.96%, tape +22.1 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 35 (11th pct) · quality 53 · 50 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led MVIS’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.26, n=50)
What traded today · 62%
−22.3 pts
16 calls · 34 puts · bias −36.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+7.7 pts
1,968 call OI · 1,308 put OI · bias +20.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −20.96% · tape +22.1 · corr 0.47
▼ low −46.3 ◆ −127.1 in a day ● peak +92 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $2 $1 Over 30 days, price has fallen 20.96% while the tape has firmed 22.1 points. The two are drifting apart.
20% hit rate · 660 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$1.26 → $1.26
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$1.31 → $1.26
−4.27% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$1.31 → $1.26
−4.20% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$1.31 → $1.26
−4.20% hit
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $1.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MVIS
Why did the score drop from +43 to −15 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +42.8 on 6 Oct, then fell to −20.5 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $1.51 to $1.52. It’s at −14.7 now.−22.3 from volume and +7.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 15:49 method · 62/38
Compare with FPS Why is our MVIS record what it is? What’s the $1.5 wall?