NIO NIO Inc
$3.39 · +0.45% vs $3.37 close · scored 20:37 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 69/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 69/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+66.6 composite+6.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
69 / 100 · top 16% today
8,532 contracts · quality 80 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
What traded today · weight 62%
+46.2 pts
7,447 calls · 87.3% 1,085 puts
bias +74.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+20.3 pts
95,454 call OI · 76.7% 28,935 put OI
bias +53.5 × 0.38
Equals
+66.6
69% of the score comes from today’s volume, 31% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −11.32% · tape −1.4 · corr 0.09
▼ low +8.2 ◆ +36.5 in a day ● peak +79 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $4 $3 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 11.32% while the tape has barely moved (−1.4). They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 69 (84th pct) · quality 80 · 8,532 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
pass Tape has led price tape has led NIO’s price by 1 day (r=-0.24, n=49)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on NIO is poor 8% hit rate on 2000 closed calls · payoff 0.47×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $3.39 highlighted. The $4 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 69,926). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
8 Oct · 4h
$3.39 → $3.39
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$3.37 → $3.37
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$3.42 → $3.42
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$3.40 → $3.40
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1577 of these 2000 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — Beta 0.876
52w $3.38–$8.02 IV rank —
Ask about NIO answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +61 to +67 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +60.5 on 1 Oct, then rose to +63.3 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $3.43 to $3.40. It’s at +66.6 now.+46.2 from volume and +20.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 50 pts stock_scores · 20:37 method · 62/38
Compare with RIVN Why is our NIO record what it is? What’s the $4 wall?
What our data projects
−0.08 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#320 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $4 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
NIO Inc · Automobiles
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+66.6 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
Why it’s +67
+46.2 volume · 87% calls+20.3 OI · 77% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +36.5 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $4 $3 Price −11.32%, tape −1.4 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 69 (84th pct) · quality 80 · 8,532 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+46.2 pts
7,447 calls · 1,085 puts · bias +74.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+20.3 pts
95,454 call OI · 28,935 put OI · bias +53.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −11.32% · tape −1.4 · corr 0.09
▼ low +8.2 ◆ +36.5 in a day ● peak +79 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $4 $3 Over 30 days, price has fallen 11.32% while the tape has barely moved (−1.4). They agree.
8% hit rate · 2000 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$3.39 → $3.39
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$3.37 → $3.37
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$3.42 → $3.42
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$3.40 → $3.40
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $4 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about NIO
Why did the score rise from +61 to +67 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +60.5 on 1 Oct, then rose to +63.3 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $3.43 to $3.40. It’s at +66.6 now.+46.2 from volume and +20.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 50 pts stock_scores · 20:37 method · 62/38
Compare with RIVN Why is our NIO record what it is? What’s the $4 wall?