ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Inc
$84.90 · +0.00% vs $84.90 close · scored 10:32 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 57/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 57/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+35.5 composite+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
57 / 100 · top 45% today
478 contracts · quality 77 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+22.6 pts
326 calls · 68.2% 152 puts
bias +36.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+12.9 pts
36,126 call OI · 67.0% 17,821 put OI
bias +33.9 × 0.38
Equals
+35.5
64% of the score comes from today’s volume, 36% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.37% · tape −17.0 · corr 0.04
▼ low −43.4 ◆ −102.4 in a day ● peak +75 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $89 $83 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.37% while the tape has faded 17.0 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 57 (55th pct) · quality 77 · 478 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
pass Tape has led price tape has led ORLY’s price by 3 days (r=-0.22, n=45)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on ORLY is poor 30% hit rate on 243 closed calls · payoff 1.76×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $84.90. The $95 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 8,892).
05 Our record on ORLY Proof 3 Oct · 4h
$84.90 → $84.90
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$85.22 → $85.22
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$85.03 → $85.03
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$84.87 → $84.87
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 122 of these 243 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 25.91 · fwd 24.16 Beta 0.560
52w $82.59–$105.39 IV rank —
Ask about ORLY answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +75 to +35 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +74.9 on 2 Oct, then fell to +35.5 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $85.03 to $84.90. It’s at +35.5 now.+22.6 from volume and +12.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 10:32 method · 62/38
Compare with BABA Why is our ORLY record what it is? What’s the $95 wall?
What our data projects
−0.38 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#526 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $95 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
O'Reilly Automotive Inc · Retail
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+35.5 evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +35
+22.6 volume · 68% calls+12.9 OI · 67% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −102.4 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $89 $83 Price −1.37%, tape −17.0 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 57 (55th pct) · quality 77 · 478 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+22.6 pts
326 calls · 152 puts · bias +36.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+12.9 pts
36,126 call OI · 17,821 put OI · bias +33.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.37% · tape −17.0 · corr 0.04
▼ low −43.4 ◆ −102.4 in a day ● peak +75 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $89 $83 Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.37% while the tape has faded 17.0 points. They agree.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
30% hit rate · 243 closed
3 Oct · 4h
$84.90 → $84.90
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$85.22 → $85.22
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$85.03 → $85.03
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$84.87 → $84.87
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $95 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ORLY
Why did the score drop from +75 to +35 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +74.9 on 2 Oct, then fell to +35.5 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $85.03 to $84.90. It’s at +35.5 now.+22.6 from volume and +12.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 10:32 method · 62/38
Compare with BABA Why is our ORLY record what it is? What’s the $95 wall?