ROK Rockwell Automation Inc
$433.96 · −0.04% vs $434.14 close · scored 15:43 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 57/100
What changed
Composite weakened 6.2 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 57/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−10.6 composite┆ −4.5 yesterday (−6.2) +25.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
57 / 100 · top 45% today
859 contracts · quality 81 · stability 0.71
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
What traded today · weight 62%
−11.6 pts
349 calls · 40.6% 510 puts
bias −18.7 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+1.0 pts
5,292 call OI · 51.3% 5,018 put OI
bias +2.7 × 0.38
Equals
−10.6
92% of the score comes from today’s volume, 8% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +1.17% · tape −31.3 · corr 0.37
◆ −97.5 in a day ▼ low −86.1 ● peak +47 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $454 $411 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 1.17% while the tape has faded 31.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 57 (55th pct) · quality 81 · 859 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led ROK’s tape by 2 days (r=0.30, n=44)
against Our record on ROK is poor 7% hit rate on 1868 closed calls · payoff 0.60×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $433.96 highlighted. The $390 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,860). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$433.96 → $433.96
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$434.14 → $433.96
−0.04% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$454.35 → $433.96
−4.49% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$434.14 → $433.96
−0.04% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 349 of these 1868 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 42.01 · fwd 28.86 Beta 1.517
52w $332.71–$497.36 IV rank —
Ask about ROK answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −31 to −11 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −35.6 on 2 Oct, then rose to +27.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $442.45 to $454.35. It’s at −10.6 now.−11.6 from volume and +1.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with FPS Why is our ROK record what it is? What’s the $390 wall?
What our data projects
+0.22 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#159 of 635 · helped by tape composite, price momentum (5 days), last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $390 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Rockwell Automation Inc · Electrical Equipment
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−10.6 ┆ −4.5 yday evidence
hasn’t paid +2.29% · n=7,579
Why it’s −11
−11.6 volume · 41% calls+1.0 OI · 51% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −97.5 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $454 $411 Price +1.17%, tape −31.3 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 57 (55th pct) · quality 81 · 859 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +2.29% avg, n=7,579
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led ROK’s tape by 2 days (r=0.30, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
−11.6 pts
349 calls · 510 puts · bias −18.7
What’s on the books · 38%
+1.0 pts
5,292 call OI · 5,018 put OI · bias +2.7
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +1.17% · tape −31.3 · corr 0.37
◆ −97.5 in a day ▼ low −86.1 ● peak +47 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $454 $411 Over 30 days, price has risen 1.17% while the tape has faded 31.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
7% hit rate · 1868 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$433.96 → $433.96
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$434.14 → $433.96
−0.04% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$454.35 → $433.96
−4.49% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$434.14 → $433.96
−0.04% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $390 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ROK
Why did the score rise from −31 to −11 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −35.6 on 2 Oct, then rose to +27.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $442.45 to $454.35. It’s at −10.6 now.−11.6 from volume and +1.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with FPS Why is our ROK record what it is? What’s the $390 wall?