SNOW

Snowflake Inc

$343.00 · +0.00% vs $343.00 close · scored 08:41 · stale

Decision brief

NEUTRAL · 77/100

What changed

Composite weakened 12.1 points.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 77/100

For the read

options volume favours calls · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high

Against / uncertainty

No material contradiction isolated.

The read

Neutral, well evidenced, and the tape has led price here.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

+9.6 composite┆ +21.7 yesterday (−12.1)+0.0 vs a week ago

Evidence

77 / 100 · top 3% today

26,550 contracts · quality 95 · stability 0.95

neutral · +0.09% · n=2,937

Why it’s +10

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

+7.9 pts

14,962 calls · 56.4%11,588 puts

bias +12.7 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

+1.7 pts

298,062 call OI · 52.2%272,546 put OI

bias +4.5 × 0.38

Equals

+9.6

82% of the score comes from today’s volume, 18% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 38 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price +3.48% · tape −22.4 · corr -0.33

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 3.48% while the tape has faded 22.4 points. The two are drifting apart.

Should you trust it?

pass

Plenty behind it

confidence 77 (97th pct) · quality 95 · 26,550 contracts

pass

Stable

0.95 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66

note

Neutral reads make no call

neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → +0.09% avg, n=2,937

pass

Tape has led price

tape has led SNOW’s price by 3 days (r=-0.26, n=37)

note

Stretched vs its own history

today’s tape sits low relative to price

against

Our record on SNOW is poor

10% hit rate on 244 closed calls · payoff 0.69×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$365

$362.5

$360

$357.5

$355

$352.5

$350

$347.5

$345

$342.5

$340

$337.5

$335

$332.5

$330

$327.5

$325

$322.5

$320

Spot $343.00 highlighted. The $300 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 27,037). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on SNOW

Proof

10%

hit rate · 244 closed

0.69×

payoff

−0.55%

avg return

9 Oct · 4h

$343.00 → $343.00

+0.00%flat

4 Oct · 4h

$341.04 → $341.04

+0.00%flat

3 Oct · 4h

$341.04 → $341.04

+0.00%flat

2 Oct · 4h

$345.03 → $345.03

+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 168 of these 244 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

+10.62%Q4 ’25

+15.61%Q1 ’26

+20.15%Q2 ’26

+36.20%Q3 ’26

Street Buy-leaningNext report — P/E — · fwd 151.58Beta 1.333 52w $118.30–$384.56IV rank —