SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc
$3.07 · +0.00% vs $3.07 close · scored 20:32 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 74/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 27.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 74/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+61.6 composite┆ +34.5 yesterday (+27.1) +27.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
74 / 100 · top 9% today
5,966 contracts · quality 89 · stability 0.83
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
What traded today · weight 62%
+47.9 pts
5,288 calls · 88.6% 678 puts
bias +77.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+13.7 pts
77,490 call OI · 68.0% 36,413 put OI
bias +36.1 × 0.38
Equals
+61.6
78% of the score comes from today’s volume, 22% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +0.99% · tape +19.5 · corr 0.22
▼ low −33.1 ◆ −67.4 in a day ● peak +66 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-07 10-10 $3 $3 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 0.99% while the tape has firmed 19.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 74 (91th pct) · quality 89 · 5,966 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
pass Tape has led price tape has led SPCE’s price by 1 day (r=0.21, n=49)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on SPCE is poor 31% hit rate on 562 closed calls · payoff 2.27×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $3.07 highlighted. The $3 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 36,571). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on SPCE Proof 7 Oct · 4h
$3.07 → $3.07
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$3.03 → $3.03
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$3.00 → $3.00
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$2.98 → $2.98
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 312 of these 562 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E — Beta 3.120
52w $2.13–$8.90 IV rank —
Ask about SPCE answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +54 to +62 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +34.5 on 6 Oct, then rose to +61.6 on 7 Oct as the price moved from $3.03 to $3.07. It’s at +61.6 now.+47.9 from volume and +13.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 50 pts stock_scores · 20:32 method · 62/38
Compare with BA Why is our SPCE record what it is? What’s the $3 wall?
What our data projects
+0.35 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#117 of 724 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $3 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc · Aerospace & Defense
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+61.6 ┆ +34.5 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
Why it’s +62
+47.9 volume · 89% calls+13.7 OI · 68% calls
50 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −67.4 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-07 10-10 $3 $3 Price +0.99%, tape +19.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 74 (91th pct) · quality 89 · 5,966 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+47.9 pts
5,288 calls · 678 puts · bias +77.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+13.7 pts
77,490 call OI · 36,413 put OI · bias +36.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +0.99% · tape +19.5 · corr 0.22
▼ low −33.1 ◆ −67.4 in a day ● peak +66 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-07 10-10 $3 $3 Over 30 days, price has risen 0.99% while the tape has firmed 19.5 points. They agree.
31% hit rate · 562 closed
7 Oct · 4h
$3.07 → $3.07
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$3.03 → $3.03
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$3.00 → $3.00
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$2.98 → $2.98
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $3 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SPCE
Why did the score rise from +54 to +62 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +34.5 on 6 Oct, then rose to +61.6 on 7 Oct as the price moved from $3.03 to $3.07. It’s at +61.6 now.+47.9 from volume and +13.7 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 50 pts stock_scores · 20:32 method · 62/38
Compare with BA Why is our SPCE record what it is? What’s the $3 wall?