SPOT Spotify Technology SA
$529.14 · +5.41% vs $501.97 close · scored 14:03 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 61/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 61/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.5 composite−5.2 vs a week ago
Evidence
61 / 100 · top 34% today
4,499 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
What traded today · weight 62%
+10.2 pts
2,621 calls · 58.3% 1,878 puts
bias +16.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+9.3 pts
27,268 call OI · 62.2% 16,573 put OI
bias +24.4 × 0.38
Equals
+19.5
52% of the score comes from today’s volume, 48% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +1.17% · tape +31.9 · corr -0.26
▼ low −32.1 ◆ −51.5 in a day ● peak +42 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-08 10-10 $561 $473 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 1.17% while the tape has firmed 31.9 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 61 (66th pct) · quality 79 · 4,499 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
pass Tape has led price tape has led SPOT’s price by 2 days (r=-0.21, n=44)
against Our record on SPOT is poor 15% hit rate on 261 closed calls · payoff 0.37×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $529.14 highlighted. The $600 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,692). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on SPOT Proof 3 Oct · 4h
$472.89 → $472.89
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$476.69 → $476.69
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$491.40 → $491.40
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$490.61 → $490.61
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 126 of these 261 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 26.64 · fwd 35.65 Beta 1.515
52w $405.00–$708.55 IV rank —
Ask about SPOT answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +28 to +20 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +24.7 on 9 Oct, then fell to +19.5 on 10 Oct as the price moved from $501.97 to $529.14. It’s at +19.5 now.+10.2 from volume and +9.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:03 method · 62/38
Compare with AMC Why is our SPOT record what it is? What’s the $600 wall?
What our data projects
+0.04 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#249 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $600 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Spotify Technology SA · Media
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.5 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
Why it’s +20
+10.2 volume · 58% calls+9.3 OI · 62% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −51.5 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-08 10-10 $561 $473 Price +1.17%, tape +31.9 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 61 (66th pct) · quality 79 · 4,499 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
against Our record on SPOT is poor 15% hit rate on 261 closed calls · payoff 0.37×
What traded today · 62%
+10.2 pts
2,621 calls · 1,878 puts · bias +16.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+9.3 pts
27,268 call OI · 16,573 put OI · bias +24.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +1.17% · tape +31.9 · corr -0.26
▼ low −32.1 ◆ −51.5 in a day ● peak +42 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-08 10-10 $561 $473 Over 30 days, price has risen 1.17% while the tape has firmed 31.9 points. They agree.
15% hit rate · 261 closed
3 Oct · 4h
$472.89 → $472.89
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$476.69 → $476.69
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$491.40 → $491.40
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$490.61 → $490.61
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $600 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about SPOT
Why did the score drop from +28 to +20 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +24.7 on 9 Oct, then fell to +19.5 on 10 Oct as the price moved from $501.97 to $529.14. It’s at +19.5 now.+10.2 from volume and +9.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:03 method · 62/38
Compare with AMC Why is our SPOT record what it is? What’s the $600 wall?