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SPY$776.93 +0.00%＋ Alert
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● 10 Oct · US closed · scored 05:17
● Sat 10 Oct 2026/US closed · opens Mon 14:30 BST/77 names scored today/last score 09:34 BSTResearch, not advice · every call is published at Proof
Stocks / etf / 15 of 20 in the sector ☆ Add to book Compare… ＋ Alert

SPY

SPY
$776.93 · +0.00% vs $776.93 close · scored 05:17 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 80/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 80/100
For the read
open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bearish, well evidenced.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
−19.5 composite−9.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
80 / 100 · top 4% today
14,221,662 contracts · quality 85 · stability 0.00
01

Why it’s −20

Method
What traded today · weight 62%
−6.0 pts
6,421,974 calls · 45.2%7,799,688 puts
bias −9.7 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−13.5 pts
5,707,413 call OI · 32.2%11,999,254 put OI
bias −35.5 × 0.38
Equals
−19.5
31% of the score comes from today’s volume, 69% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.
02

What changed: 43 days of tape against price

14d43d90d365d · Reader
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price +1.43% · tape +5.6 · corr 0.37
▼ low −33.8◆ +11.0 in a day● peak −1008-2709-0309-1009-1709-2410-0110-09$777$757

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 1.43% while the tape has firmed 5.6 points. They agree.

03

Should you trust it?

pass
Plenty behind it
confidence 80 (96th pct) · quality 85 · 14,221,662 contracts
note
Jumpy
0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
pass
This kind of read has paid
mildly bearish · balanced · high liquidity → −0.38% avg, n=449
note
No reliable lead
enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=51)
note
Stretched vs its own history
today’s tape sits low relative to price
against
Our record on SPY is poor
3% hit rate on 1123 closed calls · payoff 0.47×
04

Where the positions sit

No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $776.93. The $700 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 446,786). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05

Our record on SPY

Proof
3%
hit rate · 1123 closed
0.47×
payoff
−0.03%
avg return
3 Oct · 4h
$769.64 → $769.64
+0.00%flat
2 Oct · 4h
$771.96 → $771.96
+0.00%flat
2 Oct · 4h
$763.99 → $763.99
+0.00%flat
1 Oct · 4h
$764.39 → $764.39
+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1017 of these 1123 calls were flat.

06

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street —Next report — P/E —Beta 1.017 52w $629.28–$779.37IV rank —
SPY · etf
Mildly bearish, well evidenced.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
−19.5evidence 80
ReadWhyHistoryOptionsRecordAlerts
Why it’s −20
−6.0 volume · 45% calls−13.5 OI · 32% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +11.008-2709-0309-1009-1709-2410-0110-09$777$757
Price +1.43%, tape +5.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
passPlenty behind it
confidence 80 (96th pct) · quality 85 · 14,221,662 contracts
noteJumpy
0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
noteNo reliable lead
enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=51)
noteStretched vs its own history
today’s tape sits low relative to price
Ask about SPY
What is behind today’s −19.5?
The composite has held within 1.3 points of −19.5 across the last 8 sessions.

Today’s −19.5 breaks down as −6.0 from volume and −13.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 ptsstock_scores · 05:17method · 62/38
Ask
Explain the $700 wallCompare SPY vs IWMAlert me before earnings