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XLF$53.62 +0.00%＋ Alert
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● 18 Oct · US closed · scored 22:11
● Sun 18 Oct 2026/US closed · opens Mon 14:30 BST/4 names scored today/last score 01:07 BSTResearch, not advice · every call is published at Proof
Stocks / etf / 17 of 20 in the sector ☆ Add to book Compare… ＋ Alert

XLF

XLF
$53.62 · +0.00% vs $53.62 close · scored 22:11 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 79/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 79/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bearish, well evidenced, and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
−24.5 composite+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
79 / 100 · top 3% today
184,520 contracts · quality 84 · stability 0.00
01

Why it’s −24

Method
What traded today · weight 62%
−17.3 pts
66,493 calls · 36.0%118,027 puts
bias −27.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−7.2 pts
2,300,409 call OI · 40.6%3,367,698 put OI
bias −18.8 × 0.38
Equals
−24.5
71% of the score comes from today’s volume, 29% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.
02

What changed: 43 days of tape against price

14d43d90d365d · Reader
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −6.34% · tape −21.7 · corr 0.16
▼ low −63.4◆ +60.6 in a day● peak +3309-0109-0809-1509-2209-2910-0610-15$59$53

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 6.34% while the tape has faded 21.7 points. They agree.

03

Should you trust it?

pass
Plenty behind it
confidence 79 (97th pct) · quality 84 · 184,520 contracts
note
Jumpy
0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 37
pass
This kind of read has paid
mildly bearish · put-heavy · high liquidity → −0.36% avg, n=233
pass
Tape has led price
tape has led XLF’s price by 3 days (r=-0.27, n=43)
against
Our record on XLF is poor
6% hit rate on 522 closed calls · payoff 0.53×
04

Where the positions sit

No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $53.62. The $50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 567,749). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05

Our record on XLF

Proof
6%
hit rate · 522 closed
0.53×
payoff
−0.08%
avg return
3 Oct · 4h
$53.49 → $53.49
+0.00%flat
2 Oct · 4h
$53.70 → $53.70
+0.00%flat
2 Oct · 4h
$53.46 → $53.46
+0.00%flat
1 Oct · 4h
$53.48 → $53.48
+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 420 of these 522 calls were flat.

06

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street —Next report — P/E —Beta 0.878 52w $47.67–$58.60IV rank —
XLF · etf
Mildly bearish, well evidenced. The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
−24.5evidence 79
ReadWhyHistoryOptionsRecordAlerts
Why it’s −24
−17.3 volume · 36% calls−7.2 OI · 41% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +60.609-0109-0809-1509-2209-2910-0610-15$59$53
Price −6.34%, tape −21.7 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
passPlenty behind it
confidence 79 (97th pct) · quality 84 · 184,520 contracts
noteJumpy
0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 37
againstOur record on XLF is poor
6% hit rate on 522 closed calls · payoff 0.53×
Ask about XLF
What is behind today’s −24.5?
The composite has held within 0.5 points of −24.5 across the last 8 sessions.

Today’s −24.5 breaks down as −17.3 from volume and −7.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 ptsstock_scores · 22:11method · 62/38
Ask
Explain the $50 wallCompare XLF vs ARKKAlert me before earnings