TGT Target Corp
$154.76 · +0.00% vs $154.76 close · scored 14:22 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 74/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 74/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+11.0 composite┆ +11.0 yesterday (+0.0) −23.2 vs a week ago
Evidence
74 / 100 · top 9% today
12,024 contracts · quality 91 · stability 0.89
hasn’t paid −1.08% · n=2,328
What traded today · weight 62%
+8.6 pts
6,842 calls · 56.9% 5,182 puts
bias +13.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+2.5 pts
36,460 call OI · 53.3% 31,997 put OI
bias +6.5 × 0.38
Equals
+11.0
78% of the score comes from today’s volume, 22% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.89% · tape +2.4 · corr -0.03
▼ low −25.6 ● peak +56 ◆ −39.0 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $163 $155 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.89% while the tape has barely moved (+2.4). The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 74 (91th pct) · quality 91 · 12,024 contracts
pass Stable 0.89 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −1.08% avg, n=2,328
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led TGT’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.19, n=50)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on TGT is poor 18% hit rate on 1069 closed calls · payoff 0.64×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $154.76 highlighted. The $160 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 9,622). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
18%
hit rate · 1069 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$154.76 → $154.76
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$154.76 → $154.76
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$154.76 → $154.76
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$154.76 → $154.76
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 660 of these 1069 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 20.34 · fwd 16.65 Beta 0.935
52w $83.44–$170.75 IV rank —
Ask about TGT answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +17 to +11 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +34.2 on 2 Oct, then fell to +15.1 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $156.70 to $156.00. It’s at +11.0 now.+8.6 from volume and +2.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 14:22 method · 62/38
Compare with BABA Why is our TGT record what it is? What’s the $160 wall?
What our data projects
+0.06 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#231 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $160 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Target Corp · Retail
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+11.0 ┆ +11.0 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.08% · n=2,328
Why it’s +11
+8.6 volume · 57% calls+2.5 OI · 53% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −39.0 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $163 $155 Price −4.89%, tape +2.4 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 74 (91th pct) · quality 91 · 12,024 contracts
pass Stable 0.89 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −1.08% avg, n=2,328
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led TGT’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.19, n=50)
What traded today · 62%
+8.6 pts
6,842 calls · 5,182 puts · bias +13.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+2.5 pts
36,460 call OI · 31,997 put OI · bias +6.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.89% · tape +2.4 · corr -0.03
▼ low −25.6 ● peak +56 ◆ −39.0 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-08 10-09 $163 $155 Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.89% while the tape has barely moved (+2.4). The two are drifting apart.
18% hit rate · 1069 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$154.76 → $154.76
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$154.76 → $154.76
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$154.76 → $154.76
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$154.76 → $154.76
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $160 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about TGT
Why did the score drop from +17 to +11 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +34.2 on 2 Oct, then fell to +15.1 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $156.70 to $156.00. It’s at +11.0 now.+8.6 from volume and +2.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 14:22 method · 62/38
Compare with BABA Why is our TGT record what it is? What’s the $160 wall?