USB US Bancorp
$56.56 · −0.83% vs $57.03 close · scored 15:43 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 62/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 18.5 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 62/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+14.4 composite┆ −4.1 yesterday (+18.5) −6.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
62 / 100 · top 32% today
2,727 contracts · quality 87 · stability 0.84
hasn’t paid −0.25% · n=9,682
What traded today · weight 62%
+7.6 pts
1,531 calls · 56.1% 1,196 puts
bias +12.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+6.8 pts
14,157 call OI · 58.9% 9,860 put OI
bias +17.9 × 0.38
Equals
+14.4
53% of the score comes from today’s volume, 47% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −8.18% · tape −2.7 · corr -0.35
● peak +63 ▼ low −18.3 ◆ −81.1 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $63 $56 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.18% while the tape has barely moved (−2.7). They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (68th pct) · quality 87 · 2,727 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=9,682
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led USB’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.29, n=45)
against Our record on USB is poor 24% hit rate on 738 closed calls · payoff 2.62×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $56.56 highlighted. The $60 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,968). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$56.56 → $56.56
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$57.03 → $56.56
−0.83% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$57.03 → $56.56
−0.83% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$57.03 → $56.56
−0.83% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 452 of these 738 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 10.96 · fwd 10.53 Beta 1.049
52w $45.02–$66.08 IV rank —
Ask about USB answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +21 to +14 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +21.0 on 7 Oct, then fell to −4.2 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $57.29 to $56.17. It’s at +14.4 now.+7.6 from volume and +6.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with JPM Why is our USB record what it is? What’s the $60 wall?
What our data projects
+0.11 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#210 of 635 · helped by quality, price momentum (5 days), last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $60 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
US Bancorp · Banking
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+14.4 ┆ −4.1 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.25% · n=9,682
Why it’s +14
+7.6 volume · 56% calls+6.8 OI · 59% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −81.1 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $63 $56 Price −8.18%, tape −2.7 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (68th pct) · quality 87 · 2,727 contracts
pass Stable 0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=9,682
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led USB’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.29, n=45)
What traded today · 62%
+7.6 pts
1,531 calls · 1,196 puts · bias +12.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+6.8 pts
14,157 call OI · 9,860 put OI · bias +17.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −8.18% · tape −2.7 · corr -0.35
● peak +63 ▼ low −18.3 ◆ −81.1 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $63 $56 Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.18% while the tape has barely moved (−2.7). They agree.
24% hit rate · 738 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$56.56 → $56.56
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$57.03 → $56.56
−0.83% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$57.03 → $56.56
−0.83% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$57.03 → $56.56
−0.83% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $60 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about USB
Why did the score drop from +21 to +14 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +21.0 on 7 Oct, then fell to −4.2 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $57.29 to $56.17. It’s at +14.4 now.+7.6 from volume and +6.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with JPM Why is our USB record what it is? What’s the $60 wall?