VMC Vulcan Materials Co
$244.58 · −0.68% vs $246.26 close · scored 10:31 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 60/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 97.4 points.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 60/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+51.6 composite┆ −45.8 yesterday (+97.4) −7.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
60 / 100 · top 38% today
1,902 contracts · quality 81 · stability 0.71
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+43.1 pts
1,612 calls · 84.8% 290 puts
bias +69.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+8.6 pts
4,260 call OI · 61.3% 2,695 put OI
bias +22.5 × 0.38
Equals
+51.6
83% of the score comes from today’s volume, 17% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.31% · tape +28.2 · corr 0.21
◆ −82.3 in a day ● peak +80 ▼ low −35.3 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $275 $241 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.31% while the tape has firmed 28.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 60 (62th pct) · quality 81 · 1,902 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 36
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
pass Tape has led price tape has led VMC’s price by 3 days (r=0.18, n=45)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on VMC is poor 13% hit rate on 288 closed calls · payoff 0.25×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $244.58 highlighted. The $260 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,482). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
10 Oct · 4h
$244.58 → $244.58
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$244.58 → $244.58
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$244.58 → $244.58
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$245.91 → $244.58
−0.54% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 195 of these 288 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 28.65 · fwd 24.17 Beta 1.029
52w $237.03–$331.09 IV rank —
Ask about VMC answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +14 to +52 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +59.5 on 6 Oct, then fell to +6.3 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $243.06 to $243.06. It’s at +51.6 now.+43.1 from volume and +8.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 10:31 method · 62/38
Compare with DY Why is our VMC record what it is? What’s the $260 wall?
What our data projects
−0.09 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#329 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $260 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Vulcan Materials Co · Construction
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+51.6 ┆ −45.8 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +52
+43.1 volume · 85% calls+8.6 OI · 61% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −82.3 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $275 $241 Price −5.31%, tape +28.2 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 60 (62th pct) · quality 81 · 1,902 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 36
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+43.1 pts
1,612 calls · 290 puts · bias +69.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+8.6 pts
4,260 call OI · 2,695 put OI · bias +22.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −5.31% · tape +28.2 · corr 0.21
◆ −82.3 in a day ● peak +80 ▼ low −35.3 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $275 $241 Over 30 days, price has fallen 5.31% while the tape has firmed 28.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
13% hit rate · 288 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$244.58 → $244.58
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$244.58 → $244.58
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$244.58 → $244.58
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$245.91 → $244.58
−0.54% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $260 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about VMC
Why did the score rise from +14 to +52 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +59.5 on 6 Oct, then fell to +6.3 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $243.06 to $243.06. It’s at +51.6 now.+43.1 from volume and +8.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 10:31 method · 62/38
Compare with DY Why is our VMC record what it is? What’s the $260 wall?